2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Selections
What the selection committee got wrong, and by how much.
March Madness is upon us. The NCAA 2021 basketball season has been a rollercoaster unlike any other in the sport’s storied history, with coronavirus causing cancellations, player opt-outs and opt-ins, and forcing teams to perform under conditions unlike any they’d faced before. Bias and subjective opinions have always plagued the tournament selection process. Earlier this season, I used this objective formula which scored teams by their rank in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), Adjusted Efficiency (AdjEM), and Strength of Rank of Schedule (SOR). Using this, we’ll be objectively selecting and seeding the field.
I’ll admit my surprise: The selection committee, for all its mystique and bias did not miss the mark by a whole lot in 2021. 26 of the 68 teams’ seeds were in perfect alignment with this statistical seeding. The committee only got 4 of their team selections ‘wrong’. Our imposters, from most egregious to least:
Wichita St., Michigan St., Drake, Utah St.
SMU was a more deserving team from the American Conference than Wichita St., even though both teams endured a quadrant 3 loss to Cincinnati in their conference tournament. Utah St. received a 10-seed from the committee, but objectively should’ve been in the first four out alongside Saint Louis, Ole Miss and Indiana. The Hoosiers would also have been a better choice than Michigan St. from the Big Ten.
Here are the 4 teams, from most to least, who should have been in based on the numbers they produced in this aberrant year:
Duke, Penn St., Arizona, Memphis
That’s sure to ruffle some feathers. While many Blue Devil haters are thrilled to see them miss the tournament, Duke would’ve received a 9 seed from this objective formula. With the 35th-ranked AdjEM, Penn St. was the more deserving team from the Big Ten over MSU or Indiana. They were also more deserving than bid-winners Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Missouri. Memphis is rewarded here for finishing the year with the 3rd-ranked defense in the nation while playing quality competition—Penny Hardaway and squad can be justifiably angry over their exclusion.
Here is the objectively created bracket:
Let’s give credit to the committee where due: A gold star for every seed that was correct. The committee did especially well at the high and low end of the seed spectrum, with Iona being the only outlier amongst the 1 or 16-seeds. Some of these are no-brainers. Gonzaga had to be the consensus #1 overall seed as they enter the tournament with the highest AdjEM grade this century (And since KenPom.com began tracking). It also looks like there’s at least one Pitino sympathizer on the committee.
These deviations in seeding can help inform your brackets and give insight to what teams might benefit or be hurt by their actual seeding. The team with the biggest license to gripe are the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin received a 9-seed, a slap in the face to a team with top-ten AdjEM credentials and the 20th-ranked BPI. They should be 5 full seeds higher at the 4—but are theoretically well-poised to be one of the many 9-seeds to who upend an 8.
On the overvalued side of the coin, there’s a tie between Oklahoma St. and West Virginia as being 4 seeds higher than their numerical value. Despite running out potential #1 NBA draft pick Cade Cunningham, the Cowboys should be overjoyed to be anything more than an 8-seed. The Big 12 seems to be the biggest benefactor of bias, with Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all feeling the favoritism (Poor Texas Tech was left out). While being the second best conference overall, the committee still may have been over-qualifying these teams based upon average conference strength.
It’s also worth noting that untimely injuries going into the tournament may be of impact to this system. Villanova was rewarded here for it’s performance to date, but in the actual bracket their position may have been injured alongside their guard play.
In this first year of play-testing these brackets side-by-side, the committee got roughly 38% of their selection objectively correct. Roughly 31% of teams were over-seeded, 25% were under-seeded and the remaining 6% were left out altogether. I feel for the 4 schools who deserved their shot and will never get that opportunity. Will the imposters be run out of town early, or make an unlikely deep run? Will Gonzaga still dominate the field as the numbers expect? May this objective bracket be yet another tool in your evaluation toolbox when looking at picks and the madness to come.
