2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks — Championship Week
Do the CFP committee’s picks grow warmer, or colder?
Opinion polls are just that: opinions, subjective value carrying little worth. Each week, this system identifies the Top 25 FBS college football programs in terms of objective performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll compare these objective ranks against the biased opinions of the College Football Playoff committee. And Follow me over at BlueSky!
Temperatures are dropping across most of the country and things are getting frosty across the college football landscape. Some hot streaks ended amongst top teams last week, while other recent losers heated back up. Put it all together, and some deserving teams will likely be frozen out of this expanded playoff.
The minds of the CFP committee have again been stretched to their limit as they try to make sense of it all. After a month of ranking the top teams, have they grown any more accurate in their ratings of the FBS football programs? There’s no way to get through the gauntlet without offending at least one fanbase, but we can easily see who the top teams are in terms of performance, or by how many games they’ve won.
The PASS Top 25
These are the schools playing the most efficient football right now.
Notre Dame return to the spotlight after previously appearing on top in Week 9. After 10 weeks of that spot changing hands, that’s become a heavy crown to bear. Because this is our ranking for season-long performance, Ohio State and Alabama still find themselves in second and third. If you’re new to these rankings: Yes, wins do factor into PASS — as noted by the rises and falls of teams when they win and lose. Wins are a multiplier that give added weight to the teams who are playing the most efficient football on a per play basis.
Performance against schedule is a boon for the SEC, as Georgia and Texas come in at #4 and #5. The CFP’s current crown jewel, Oregon, sits at #6. By the rules of the new playoff, the objectively strongest top four seeds are a bit different than what the CFP believes to be fair, with #8 SMU and #11 Boise State coming in as the other two byes. How far off was the committee in terms of objective performance versus strength of schedule?
The CFP committee only had three teams wrong last week; this week they’re back to five. They did manage to correctly place three teams in terms of their performance. Clemson are out of the Top 25 completely following their rivalry loss to South Carolina, who have climbed into the Top 10. Penn State, Iowa State, and Arizona State are overvalued. Alabama remains the most undervalued team with Colorado just behind.
Syracuse remains in mathematical limbo. PASS does have one blind spot. Because the metric operates on tempo, it can struggle with teams who have been outscored across all FBS games (Generating a negative value) but still compile wins to multiply their rating. Syracuse has the wins, but they’ve only been winning close games and can’t get into positive scoring territory after the drubbing they received at the hands of a rapidly diminishing Pitt team. While the rating may seem anomalous, it’s not exactly comforting putting any money on a team that’s been outscored on the season.
The tWin% Top 25
If you’re a hater of the above ratings, tWin% ranks all teams with an emphasis on how many wins they have.
If wins matter most, the CFP committee at least gets Oregon right at the top of the table. Past that, things get murky very quickly . If you believe that the win column matters above everything else, then you’ve got to include Army, while other teams like Louisiana and Memphis edge closer and closer to playoff relevance. SEC haters will enjoy seeing only Texas and Georgia getting into the playoff.
While the committee correctly ranked Oregon, SMU, and Miami (FL), they still missed completely on 6 of the winningest teams. Missouri remains their biggest reach with 11 more-eligible winners ahead of them. Last week saw a glimmer of hope that the margin of rank error would finally dip below 200, something the committee achieved in each of the 4-team playoff years. This year it appears they’re determined to be off by the widest margin ever.
Highest Rise
#38 Baylor (From #53). In one of the most fun storylines of the year, Baylor has become one of the hottest teams in the nation after the season started with head coach Dave Aranda’s job coming under fire. The Bears closed their season with six straight wins and put down an also recently feisty Kansas squad.
Biggest Fall
#48 James Madison (From #33). It’s the Duke’s second appearance as the hardest drop, previously appearing here in Week 9. Truly a Jekyll Madison kind of year.
The sTem Top 25
The sTem Top 25 grades teams’ offenses and defenses on a per-play basis, to see how efficiently they score and prevent scoring.
Notre Dame maintained their lead after exposing USC’s total lack of defense, while Indiana climbed back to #2 with a 66–0 explosion over Big Ten bottom-feeders Purdue. When comparing the two above ranking systems, sTem often provides an insight into why teams’ PASS ratings are where they are, as well as helping to identify group of seven teams who are legit and not just imposters.
Championship Week — The Games!
This week we’ll look at each team’s PASS and sTem to evaluate which games are close matchups or have more potential for blowouts. Vegas odds for comparison are as of 8:00AM EST on Dec. 6. Here are the championships in order from biggest PASS disparity to least…
ACC: #28 Clemson (-1) VS #8 SMU
Clemson: 12.319 PASS // 0.165 sTem (#26)
SMU: 38.509 PASS // 0.291 sTem (#8)
Clemson’s been tracked here as statistically overrated for the majority of the season. That doesn’t mean the Tigers haven’t been competitive, but the outcomes have held up when they play a stronger team. Last week’s example with South Carolina was probably the most clear illustration yet. This week SMU’s performance advantage is almost 14 points greater than in that hard-fought game against the Gamecocks. A one point spread is so small, yet still seems overly generous given the strength of the Mustangs.
B1G: #12 Penn State VS #6 Oregon (-4)
Penn State: 25.792 PASS // 0.275 sTem (#10)
Oregon: 41.945 PASS // 0.253 sTem (#12)
This matchup is already getting more interesting than the one above because there’s a now disparity in rank. Penn State’s superior sTem score gives them a hint of upset potential. Oregon has beaten a team with a higher sTem score just once, at home against Ohio State. The bad news for the Nittany Lions? The conference leading Ducks carry a significant enough PASS rating advantage to justify their 4-point spread. oSoS (Objective Strength of Schedule) could also play a role. Both teams had bottom-half schedules where Oregon holds another edge, #81 over #111.
MWC: #17 UNLV @ #11 Boise State (-5.5)
UNLV: 20.536 PASS // 0.255 sTem (#11)
Boise State: 26.901 PASS // 0.227 sTem (#15)
As these PASS ratings get narrower, the Vegas spreads seem to grow. These two Mountain West foes have already played each other, with Boise State coming out on top on the road by 5. Now that they’re at home, it may justify the spread. The Broncos have a bit more formidable PASS score, but we’re getting into the range of tighter outcomes now. Both teams have similar oSoS rankings (#94 and #103, respectively). The Rebels could still make this interesting with their better pace of play.
AAC: #14 Tulane (-4.5) @ #19 Army
Tulane: 24.925 PASS // 0.292 sTem (#6)
Army: 18.733 PASS // 0.249 sTem (#13)
Tulane is coming off of a loss to a 10-win Memphis team, but previous to that the Green Wave looked like the strongest Group of Seven team. That’s also a title held earlier in the year by Army, before they got manhandled by overall #1 Notre Dame. The Black Knights had also been at #1 atop the sTem leaderboard before their offense sputtered out for three straight weeks against the back half of their conference slate. It’ll be interesting to see which slouching team can out-pace the other; this line for Tulane feels justified.
MAC: #56 Ohio VS #39 Miami OH (-2)
Ohio: 2.645 PASS // 0.143 sTem (#31)
Miami OH: 6.457 PASS // 0.156 sTem (#28)
The MAC hasn’t seen any true front-runner for most of the year, with some decent teams emerging only to be blown up by a bad team. Miami of Ohio had a rough opening schedule, losing three straight to Power Five opponents and four of their first five games. Since then the Red Hawks have been on a seven-game win streak behind a stout defense that’s been more than capable of dealing with MACtion offenses. Ohio has their own 5-game winning streak, with the last loss coming on the road — by 10 at Miami of Ohio. The Bobcats performance in those wins hasn’t been as impressive, although their sTem score is very similar. I like Miami to cover.
SEC: #4 Georgia VS #5 Texas (-2)
Georgia: 44.338 PASS // 0.188 sTem (#22)
Texas: 42.184 PASS // 0.300 sTem (#5)
Here’s the heaviest hitting matchup of the weekend. And while close, there are three conference championships that are even more closely matched. Georgia doesn’t instill confidence via the eye test after struggling through eight overtimes to put away a relatively average Georgia Tech team. If the Bulldogs don’t clean it up quickly, the Longhorns and their tempo advantage could run them through. Texas’ schedule is their shortcoming; their one loss came to this same Georgia team, but they didn’t have to play Alabama or Mississippi and have one of the weakest oSoS in the SEC (#85 to Georgia’s #6). Only Mississippi and Tennessee had it easier, and that’s a huge schedule disparity that can’t be ignored. I don’t love a pick here, but the winner and loser will certainly help illustrate the incoming playoff odds.
Sun Belt: #33 Marshall @ #38 Louisiana (-4)
Marshall: 8.413 PASS // 0.194 sTem (#30)
Louisiana: 6.821 PASS // 0.146 sTem (#20)
The Sun Belt championship won’t light up the playoff bracket like some of our matchups above, but it should be a fun one. These teams haven’t played each other yet. The Thundering Herd are on a six game win streak. The Ragin’ Cajuns have won eight of nine. Marshall’s perhaps got a small edge in terms of schedule with losses to Ohio State and Virginia Tech, while Louisiana’s only power conference foe was (A win) over a very rough Wake Forest side. This could end up being a game decided by less than the 4 points Vegas has drawn up.
Big XII: #24 Iowa State VS #25 Arizona State (-1.5)
Iowa State: 15.663 PASS // 0.120 sTem (#42)
Arizona State: 15.344 PASS // 0.139 sTem (#35)
It’s fitting that the closest power conference matchup comes to us from the Big XII. All season long this topsy turvy conference has delivered on tight margins as well as PASS upsets. These teams haven’t played each other, and both stand at 10–2 with both losses coming inside of the conference. It was hard to know what to make of an early season 1-point win over Iowa at the time, but Iowa has matured into a Top 25 PASS/sTem member. The Sun Devils on the other hand have the stronger in-conference schedule, with wins over BYU and Kansas State. This feels almost like a coin flip, but if there’s any edge to be found it’s the Cyclone’s slightly tougher schedule (#68 to ASU’s #87).
CUSA: #54 Western Kentucky @ #53 Jacksonville State (-3)
WKU: 3.190 PASS // 0.069 sTem (#56)
JSU: 3.144 PASS // 0.139 sTem (#34)
Our first Friday night matchup is our wildest. Down here at the bottom, or the top, depending on your angle, we’ve got the pure chaos of Conference USA. As the conference with the lowest overall PASS ratings in the nation, its teams have been more likely to produce unpredictable results throughout the year. This matchup is a mere 0.046 difference between performance against weak schedules (#113 and #129 oSoS, respectively). The Gamecocks of Alabama have a tempo advantage here, so the Vegas line in this case may be warranted.
That’s it for championship week! After the final madness of the CFP committee is revealed I’ll be back to reveal their objective mistakes. More importantly, bowl previews will be on the way! If your teams are still playing or you’re wheeling and dealing, good luck on this weekend’s games. Hopefully your luck will be hot and counter the temperatures outside.
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