2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks, Week 1
Find out last week’s biggest surprise and prep for Week 2’s biggest matchups
Each week, my system identifies the Top 25 FBS football programs in terms of their performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and true win percentage (tWin%). For more on that, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the season progresses I’ll visualize how the top teams are trending, as well as each conference’s total values.
Week 1’s kickoff was predominantly a long weekend of expected outcomes. New Mexico’s loss in Week 0 remained the only FBS loss to the FCS; in Week 1 the FBS went 60–0 against the lower division. While these games are generally considered expected outcomes, it’s astounding that the week with the most inter-division play (By far) ended up being a clean sweep. That outcome was more surprising for me than any of the individual games.
In games where two FBS schools faced off there weren’t too many surprises in terms of Win/Loss outcomes. There were certainly several in terms of expected scoring, which sets the stage for an interesting first-edition of the 2024 sTem Top 25. That’s not to say kickoff week was without any drama. Florida State was determined to remain in the spotlight as the team with the most shocking loss twice in a row (At home to an equally unheralded Boston College), while LSU was upstaged by the semi-home USC in Las Vegas. Unfortunately for my record keeping, those dramatic outcomes will likely only bolster media desire for more off-Saturday scheduling.
The other opinion poll-ranked teams all won their matchups, with the exception of Texas A&M and Clemson, who fell to higher-ranked teams in Notre Dame and Georgia. With so much happening by the book, there still have to be some unexpected moments, right?
The tWin% Top 25
That’s where these objective ranks come in. Blowouts over the FCS? Great! But they don’t help your tWin% as much as a full-blooded FBS win. A strong opening PASS score also requires getting a win over an FBS school. If your team really burnt their cupcake opponents, sTem will show us who’s overclocked their cooking time. We’ll start with the tWin% Top 25, where wins matter above all else.
Oklahoma opens the year with the strongest performance over an FBS foe. If enough of the teams in the new-look SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big XII perform well their PASS scores will soar, based on even more consolidated bases of schedule-strength. But if a lot of those power-conference teams go .500, it may have the opposite effect. I’m curious to see if there will be a bolstering — or cannibalization effect — of those conferences’ PASS scores compared to the years before.
It’s worth tracking a couple instances of disparity commonly seen here in early-season tWin% rankings:
- There’s a noticeable consolidation of SEC teams towards the top, and that’s largely due to their teams playing more first-flight games while playing less FCS opponents up front than anyone else in Week 1. As such, this particular early grouping has been common. When Weeks 9 through 12 roll around, the teams who saved their beat-down for later will still face an inevitable drop in tWin%. Later in the season that drop may come at a time that’s incongruous with CFP committee grading. That may instill false confidence, as each year this evaluation has proven more accurate than the playoff hype. The best way to avoid this misdirection is to simply play a full schedule of FBS opponents!
- On the other side of FBS power structures, we get an early look at some teams who might just end up being the 2024 Group of Five darling. In recent years we’ve seen the likes of James Madison, Tulane, UTSA, and Cincinnati rise early and stick around all year. We’ve also seen imposters who have impressive W/L records and terrible PASS scores because of weak scheduling. Which direction will North Texas, Boise State, and UTSA trend?
The PASS Top 25
While not too different from the current tWin% ranks in Week 1, PASS scores usually filter out a few teams whose performances were not very impressive against weaker opponents. Throughout the year I’ll affectionately refer to those teams as the imposters. The teams who move up to take their place in the PASS Top 25 are those who turn in positive performances against admirable opponents — while still maintaining a solid win percentage overall.
The field is largely unchanged, for now. It looks like there’s some good football happening in Texas even if some of it came in the form of beating up on the FCS. SMU and Baylor are the two teams who move up with the early-season work they’ve turned in.
The sTem Top 25
First-look scoring tempo ranks provide us with a wholly different landscape. Last year Oregon kicked the year off with a pace of over a full point per play scored/allowed. This year we’re starting with five potential high-octane flyers:
Auburn is off the charts after an absolute thrashing of FCS’ Alabama A&M. Scoring 73 points on just 46 plays is a feat that’s not likely to be outdone this season — although I always welcome the opportunity to see those limits stretched further. Defending 70 plays and only allowing 3 points isn’t anything to sneeze at, either. It’s perhaps even more intriguing to see Group of Five teams like Central Michigan and Washington St. near the top, perched above heralded offensive mainstays like Alabama, Mississippi, and Ohio State.
Week 2 Games to Watch
#6 Alabama (-30.5) vs. #20 USF / sTem rank
Nick Saban may have trotted off into the sunset, but ‘Bama still looks like a title-chaser. Don’t get too comfortable. This could be one of those trip-up games considering South Florida’s steady progression. What is still likely to be a victory for the Crimson Tide isn’t a game where I’d feel comfortable enough to beat a huge spread (Like this one!).
#7 Tulane vs. #24 Kansas St. (-10.5) / sTem rank
This will be a great gut-check for both teams. Tulane fans might view themselves as the Group of Five’s greatest hope in this expanded playoff year. Kansas State is one from a bunch of capable Big XII teams itching to fill a void left behind by the just-defected Sooners and Longhorns. A first-week edge in tempo is not a sure bet here, but it doesn’t hurt: Last year 61.7% of teams with the higher sTem value won their Week 2 game, some potentially good news for a Green Wave team playing at home.
#19 Kansas (-3.5) @ #22 Illinois / sTem rank
I was surprised to see that current betting lines showed up as pretty close here. The Jayhawks feel like they’re tugging at plenty of heart-strings from a recent-years meteoric rise out of the basement; they’re also chasing that same Big XII void mentioned above. Illinois has had just one winning season in the last 10 and will be highly motivated for any kind of return to relevance. With such a close gap in tempo, I’d view this as a game of future tier-evaluation with a justifiably uncertain outcome.
#4 Texas @ #12 Michigan (+7) / PASS rank
It’s the big one for the media landscape. It’s also the biggest matchup of PASS Top 25 performers in Week 2. How do these titanic programs compare in tempo? Looking at their previous opponents, it’s hard to tell if Colorado State or Fresno State will end up the better team, but the Longhorns certainly handled themselves better across every down in Week 1 (Seen ranked at #15 above). The Wolverines were not ranked in the sTem Top 25 and are currently back at #58. I’d say the line for Texas looks justified as the Wolverines are objective-rank underdogs, but Ann Arbor always has a chance to impact things as the home setting.
I hope you enjoy your weekend and the games. Good luck to your teams, or on your bets! Next week we’ll check in on the predictive rates of these stats and see our first visualizations of team movements across the landscape.
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