2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks — Week 12
How objectively wrong is round 2 of the CFP rankings? Spoiler: Very.
Opinion polls are just that: opinions, subjective value carrying little worth. Each week, this system identifies the Top 25 FBS football programs in terms of objective performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll compare these objective ranks against the biased opinions of the College Football Playoff committee. And Follow me over at BlueSky!
Week 2 of the CFP committee opinions of where college football’s elite rank are here! Last week we saw that a slanted committee didn’t do the worst possible job, but did miss the mark pretty wildly on more than a few teams. We’ll see below how they’ve performed this week.
It’s been a wild season in terms of upsets, both in traditional opinion poll ranks and here in the objective rankings. This week saw a return to balance on all fronts as the objectively higher-ranked teams overwhelmingly outperformed their opponents:
- 72% of stronger tWin% teams won.
- 76% of stronger PASS teams won.
- 80% of more efficient sTem teams won.
It makes sense that tWin% has traditionally lagged behind the other two metrics, as it was designed to fairly rank teams based on wins and performance and not intended to predict outcomes. That hasn’t stopped it from being an effective barometer, but its main purpose remains to create an objective playoff selection that’s inclusive of both the power conferences and group of seven.
The PASS Top 25
PASS has fluctuated more wildly this year than in years past, which very transparently illustrates how transfer portal movement has effected the game. No teams are soaring ahead of the pack as in other recent years but Week 11 did see a slight separation of top teams begin to emerge.
It’s now a seven-week streak of a new #1 atop the PASS leaderboard. Ohio State has recaptured the narrow lead it began the season with, securing the top spot for the 3rd time this season. That doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are any more likely to lock down the crown than previous holders, as they’re still 3rd-place in sTem and 5th-place in tWin%. Doing an even better job against Northwestern this week than any of the Wildcats’ previous opponents is likely the only way to hold on to the lead. That means putting up more than 41 points, or holding NW below 3 points. If by some stretch they did both, they’d absolutely continue to move along their current trajectory.
Oregon (Objectively not #1) isn’t trailing by much and could catch up to OSU, Alabama, Notre Dame and Indiana if they can turn in a similarly impressive performance against Wisconsin. It’ll certainly be difficult to replicate what Alabama has already done in Madison this year to pass the Crimson Tide. Texas is in a no-man’s land right now and likely needs teams above them to lose, or lose badly, to find a re-entry to the objectively elite.
If the playoff were to begin today judged solely upon on-field performance, the back-end of the 12 teams would look wildly different than the current committee selections. BYU, SMU, Mississippi, Georgia, Army, and Tulane would get in, and probably not in the order people operating on emotions would imagine. Army and Tulane are tied as this week’s biggest snubs of the CFP rankings.
The most overrated team this week is Tennessee. While the SEC is the strongest conference in college football in 2024, it’s also the most overvalued by the CFP committee. Teams well outside the top 25 like #38 Missouri and #43 LSU are the most prominent at the masquerade of imposters, while currently deserving teams like Pitt and Navy are left out in the cold.
Week 12 — The tWin% Top 25
Let’s check in on the CFP’s second week of rankings against the current tWin% formula of tracking the value of teams’ wins over FBS competition, with performance as the tie-breaker. Remember, victories over the FCS are worth less than a full-value FBS game. Has the committee tracked the above notes accordingly, or have their opinions gotten even wilder?
The number of objectively incorrect teams the CFP included grew from five to six teams this week, making them a more inaccurate body of opinion in Week 2. They’ve also gone down from three teams ranked correctly (Marked with a star) to two. Army remains the most snubbed team, as the Black Knights are only outdone in the true win column by Indiana and Oregon.
We’ve also got a notable snub in the top 12 of winning teams. If wins are what truly matter, Louisiana-Lafayette deserve their shot at glory. The Ragin Cajuns even have performance score stronger than that of in-state favorites LSU, who are one of this week’s biggest misses by the committee alongside #43 Louisville. That’s an interesting departure from above where the Cardinals sit at 13th in performance. LSU by comparison has no excuses as they rank below #40 in both metrics.
Whether you’re a fan of ranking teams objectively upon performance or upon the win column, the margins have been narrowed significantly from years past. It’s been a challenging year for outcome predictions at most outlets. That’s proved similarly challenging for the committee, as they’ve missed the mark more wildly than last year at this time. With most teams looking at 3 games remaining on the schedule, there’s still time for them to redeem themselves.
Highest Rise
#53 California (From #91). In one of the largest leaps of the entire 2024 season, the Golden Bears put up their biggest points total over Wake Forest. In doing so, they even eclipsed Mississippi’s offensive performance against the Demon Deacons.
Biggest Fall
#81 North Texas (From #51). The high-flying offense of the Mean Green totally sputtered out against Army, managing just 3 points in an ugly, low-scoring game. While the Black Knights are an objectively great opponent, the only other team to have performed so poorly against them is Air Force, one of the worst teams in the FBS.
The sTem Top 25
The sTem Top 25 grades teams’ offenses and defenses on a per-play basis, to see how efficiently they score and prevent scoring. By this point in the season, only drastic outcomes will alter the rankings as teams grow closer to completing their body of work.
Notre Dame and Ohio State were able to leapfrog Army, after their aforementioned slugfest. sTem at this point in the year is a really great indicator of future performance. If one team carries a significantly stronger sTem score and PASS score, their likelihood of winning is generally going to be pretty great. While tWin% and PASS might not always be in agreement upon the Top 25, sTem can help identify a legitimate team from an imposter.
Louisville, an assumed playoff team by many, and Louisiana, probably not credited in many places at all, are both here. Notable schools like Clemson, LSU, Kansas State, and Missouri are not. I have a suspicion that this season still has more than a couple big upsets in store for us.
Week 12 Games to Watch
Onto those games. The games of the week track some of the best matchups between the top-ranked teams of PASS and sTem, as well as the tightest matchups of the week. Odds are as of 10:00AM EST on Nov. 14.
#12 Tulane (-6.5) @ #19 Navy / PASS rank
While this matchup doesn’t have as much at stake in the CFP opinion ranks, it’s got huge implications for finishing in the top 12 of the objective performance rankings. Navy is ranked just four spots below Tulane in sTem at #13 and this matchup could prove more difficult for the Green Wave than Vegas currently predicts.
#23 Kansas State (-8.5) VS #31 Arizona State / PASS rank
Kansas State has played strongly at home and wants a return to the win column, but their most recent home performance was a narrow escape from a mediocre Kansas team. Arizona State has proven a big wildcard in the Big XII and these teams sTem scores are separated by a mere 0.03 making this anything but an easy cover.
#28 Clemson (-10) @ #17 Pitt / PASS rank
My game of the week is Clemson’s chance at proving their legitmacy. The Tigers have flirted with statistical relevance all year, but seem to bounce up and down rather than string together valuable performances. Pitt is reeling after their first two losses coming consecutively, but the Panthers remain a dangerous team with a higher rank in both performance and tempo (Where they hold a #19 to #31 edge). The momentum might be going in opposite directions for these teams, but 10 points is a very confident cover here.
Enjoy the games and good luck to your teams, or on any bets you’ll be making. Next week we’ll check back to see if the CFP Committee has made better sense of the field or if they remain in the current murkiness of a bias-filled darkness.
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