2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks — Week 13
Find out how far away the CFP committee’s rankings are from statistical reality.
Opinion polls are just that: opinions, subjective value carrying little worth. Each week, this system identifies the Top 25 FBS college football programs in terms of objective performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll compare these objective ranks against the biased opinions of the College Football Playoff committee. And Follow me over at BlueSky!
As the season’s end draws closer, the college football landscape marched forward with a few notable losses in the pollster Top 25's and the CFP committee rankings. Teams marked previously as imposters like Kansas State and LSU took losses, while glancing wounds were sustained by others. The amount of tWin% upsets were just a hair under the season’s pace, with higher-ranked teams winning 69% of last week’s games. The narrative that FBS parity is at an all time high is playing out in real time. Despite that, the PASS metric had a particularly strong showing, with the higher performing team winning 43 of 55 games (78.18%).
The PASS Top 25
After those games, how has the landscape changed? Performance against an objective strength of schedule (oSoS) identifies how effectively teams have played against their competition when evaluated against the rest of the competitive landscape.
The streak is up to eight straight weeks of a new #1 atop the PASS leaderboard. Alabama returns for the first time since Week 5 and tops the rankings for the 4th week overall. The Crimson Tide had the benefit of padding their stats against FCS’ Mercer, giving them a nice little spike upwards to outpace also rising Ohio State and Notre Dame.
Indiana and Oregon won, but not as convincingly, so their ratings took a hit. They join a second tier with rising Texas, who looked good against an Arkansas team rated more highly than Michigan and Wisconsin. Barring disaster, these six teams should fill out half of the playoff field. After those two small groupings, it becomes a melee of everyone else.
It’s worth noting that Syracuse continued to plummet in last place despite winning a respectable game against Cal. They have 7 wins, so why are they still falling? The answer is relatively simple: PASS tracks overall performance against schedule on both sides of the ball, and because ‘Cuse gives up more points per play than they score, it leads to a negative value multiplier. If the Orangemen’s schedule were stronger they might not be so heavily affected. If they can muster a double-digit win, they’ll likely soar up from the basement.
Onto the main event. Following Week 12, who did the committee get right and wrong?
Tennessee remains the CFP committee’s most overrated team featured in the PASS Top 25, while #45 Missouri is the overall weakest team in the CFP rankings. The Group of 7’s strongest team is still Tulane, once again the most undervalued. The committee did get one thing right, with correctly identifying Ohio State as the second best team in the nation.
The tWin% Top 25
Let’s say it doesn’t sit right with you that Alabama gets to move up into first place after beating a lower-division team. That’s where tWin% comes in, putting wins first while using performance as the tie-breaker. Objectively ranking teams by wins above all else levels the playing field, with the drawback being that some teams with lower performance ratings can sneak in. In this case no single digit PASS-rated teams have cracked the top 12, with #14 Sam Houston State currently coming the closest.
The CFP committee’s initial ranking was objectively wrong by 222 total ranking positions from tWin%. Their second try missed the mark by even more, rising to 238. This week they’ve shown slight improvement, now off by 200. UNLV and South Carolina are featured above in the PASS top 25, while Clemson and Arizona State are #12 / #13 here. Illinois and Missouri are the true outliers, failing to meet the standards of either metric.
Highest Rise
#67 UTSA (From #84). Talk about capitalizing on misery. North Texas was last week’s biggest fall, and San Antonio shows up to kick the Mean Green while they’re down. The Roadrunners showed out, dropping 48 points while getting to .500 with the 21-point win.
Biggest Fall
#71 Boston College (From #56). The season started so strongly for the Eagles. While losing to a very good SMU team on it’s own isn’t shameful, BC has dropped 4 of 5 to fall to .500. They find themselves on the wrong side of a crowded field of mediocrity while trending downwards.
The sTem Top 25
The sTem Top 25 grades teams’ offenses and defenses on a per-play basis, to see how efficiently they score and prevent scoring. At this point in the year these rankings fluctuate less wildly than PASS and sTem, though some movement is still noticable.
Despite Indiana’s waning PASS rating, they’re still the leaders in tempo for a 5th straight week. Ohio State passed Notre Dame up in the only move that occurred in the top five. LSU and Kansas State were two absentees from last week’s sTem top 25 who lost and find themselves gone from CFP consideration. Could other teams lacking top-tier sTem like Missouri and Illinois be the next to fall?
A great sTem ranking often helps identify the best teams in the nation, but it can’t make you bulletproof. Last week’s mention of Louisville and big upsets in the same paragraph proved more on the nose than I would’ve imagined. Stanford’s huge upset presented us with one of the biggest ranking differentials of the year as The Cardinal were ranked #129 in both PASS and sTem.
Week 13 Games to Watch
The games of the week track some of the best matchups between the top-ranked teams of PASS and sTem, as well as the tightest matchups of the week. Odds are as of 8:00AM EST on Nov. 21.
#72 Nebraska (-2.5) VS #74 Wisconsin / PASS rank
This might be the closest thing we’ll get to a mediocrity championship in 2024. A battle between two 5–5 conference foes with the same color palette looking to become bowl eligible is intriguing. The fact they’re separated by just 0.08 in PASS rating and 0.004 in sTem (#75 and #78, respectively) sets the stage for what could be an incredibly entertaining game. Even though a line of -2.5 is already thin, you won’t see many games that define ‘coin flip’ as well as this one.
#17 BYU @ #28 Arizona State (-3.5) / PASS rank
ASU features here again after last week’s convincing win over Kansas State. While BYU has been lackluster these past few weeks before their collapse at home last week, they’re still considerably stronger than K-State in both PASS and sTem, as the edge in rank above shows. The Sun Devils have the momentum and are favored by the sportsbooks, but also find themselves to be underdogs in sTem, where the Cougars outrank them #22 to #49.
#2 Ohio State (-11.5) VS #4 Indiana / PASS rank
Who would’ve thought that the Big Ten’s marquee in-season matchup would be this pair? If the Buckeyes manage to cover the somewhat garish spread, they’re all but guaranteed to vault back to the top of the PASS rankings next week. The Hoosiers slowed down against Michigan and will be in the hostile porcelain bowl of Ohio Stadium, but I’d look for the reigning sTem leaders to put up a fight — no one in the playoff race wants to be blown out in front of an opinion-based committee.
We’re getting close to this monumental playoff and even closer to seeing which fanbases will have a legitimate axe to grind with the CFP committee. After last week’s big upsets and ranked losses, we could still see even more playoff imposters fall. Enjoy the games and good luck to your teams, on any bets you’ll be making, and on planning the upcoming football-filled holidays!
For a subscription to full rankings of all 134 teams, a request to hear about your favorite team, or any other related questions, please reach out to me at objectivelydrew@gmail.com. Or drop me a comment right here. If you find this information of value, please consider sharing this or hitting the clap button a bunch. Your viewership is greatly appreciated. Thank you for being here!
Online gambling and sports betting carry inherent risks, and you should only participate with funds you can afford to lose. To encourage legal and responsible gaming practices, I urge you to seek help if you, or someone you know has a gambling problem. Contact 1–800-GAMBLER or The National Council on Problem Gambling for assistance.
