2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks - Week 3
PASS correctly picks 86.36% of last week’s winners
Each week, my system identifies the Top 25 FBS football programs in terms of performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll visualize how top teams are trending, as well as each conference’s total value.
Week 3
It was an incredibly good week for predicting college football games judging by performance to date. The team with the higher PASS value won 38 out of 44 eligible FBS games. So, how can you effectively use PASS to guess the winner of a game?
PASS grades teams on the quality of their wins versus the objective strength of their schedule (oSoS), so a team without a win does not yet receive a value. To create a baseline across more games in these early weeks, you could assume teams with a value will defeat teams without a value. While that’s much rougher in week 1 and 2, it becomes increasingly likely as each week passes.
Next, avoid choosing a winner in games where two PASS values of zero occur. There were three of those matchups this past week. There were also six teams to notch their first win; include those as incorrect picks and the total becomes 38 out of 50 (76%). Still a great week. The FBS also once again swept the FCS this week, going 11–0. I did not include those games in the count above but if they were added as assumed wins, then the overall count would be 49/61, or 80.33%.
Alternatively, looking at sTem is a way to compare teams in all 64 games that took place, aiding us in evaluating winless teams. This was also a very strong week for sTem, as the team with the better adjusted scoring tempo went 53–11.
The tWin% Top 25
As always, we kick off the rankings with true win percentage, where wins over FBS teams are everything.
What’s immediately noticeable is that while there’s not too much change near the top, there’s a huge gap in performance. Alabama is all alone at the top after handing Wisconsin its largest home loss in 16 years, when in recent years there have been 2–3 strong teams racing each other. This doesn’t yet make the Crimson Tide a lock for the National Championship or even the playoff, as the 2023 USC team proved after their hot start. But it doesn’t hurt their chances, either.
There are also a lot of new teams here! Louisiana-Monroe hung around and Coastal Carolina jumped into the picture, with Louisiana and Army also moving up as G5 teams of growing legitimacy. In negative movement, Nebraska illustrates how playing an FCS team has a negative impact upon tWin%— although the Huskers are still ranked #4 in PASS, visualized below. Michigan State and North Carolina also fell off the leaderboard as victims of their own cupcake-eating.
Highest Rise
#55 Texas Tech (From #91). The Red Raiders lost convincingly to Washington State in Week 2, then bounced back by putting up 66 points against North Texas. Washington State’s own performance against Washington lent a hand to oSoS, aiding in this rise.
Biggest Fall
#79 Oregon State (From #25). Ouch. Unlike the in-state rivalry above, the battle for the state of Oregon was one-sided at 49–14. The Beavers’ FCS opponent Idaho State lost, as did the previous week’s opponent, San Diego State. A precipitous drop is the result.
The PASS Top 25
While Alabama tops a list that’s largely representative of the tWin% Top 25, there’s a stark shuffling of the teams based upon actual performance.
Winning teams like Arizona State and Pitt may very well have rude awakenings as they get into conference play. Other schools like Oregon and Auburn could very well see their PASS values soar if they continue along their current trajectories. Teams who flatlined or made little progress may have had a bye week, played against FCS competition, or had a close, low-scoring game, like Oklahoma’s 16–12 defeat of Houston followed up by a solid win over hard-luck Tulane.
The sTem Top 25
Several teams saw hard drop-offs in tempo, as even previous #2, Purdue, is absent after receiving a 66–7 shellacking from Notre Dame. Ohio State steals the title from Mississippi. And for those paying attention, Toledo was featured here last week and ranked above their Week 3 opponent, Mississippi State. What might have looked like an upset to media pundits looked like an obvious pick for those following sTem.
Conference Ranks
The Power 4 and the two teams of the PAC12 live up to the assumed hype and currently remain the winningest. The Sun Belt has had a pretty strong start, too.
The SEC soars. Conference play should level off these values a bit, but some gaps are likely to hold. Especially considering the bloat of re-aligned teams in the power conferences.
The volatility of the low-member PAC12 and independents will likely only become more apparent as the weeks progress. Tempo goes down across the board as more teams play legitimate FBS competition and more conference play begins to kick up.
Week 2 Games to Watch
Each week we’ll track some of the matchups between the top-ranked teams of PASS and sTem. Odds are as of 3p EST on Sept. 19.
Friday — #4 Nebraska (-8.5) VS #9 Illinois / PASS rank
A top-ten matchup nearly always makes for a good watch. Nebraska is the big favorite here and playing at home, but Illinois is probably better than the current general consensus when considering the spread.
#2 Oklahoma VS #13 Tennessee (-7.5) / PASS rank
Oklahoma’s performance to date against their schedule has been impressive. Tennessee is right behind them. Will sTem be the difference-maker? The Vols are #2 in tempo and Oklahoma are back at #29. Or will playing in Norman give the Sooners the fire they need?
#7 Texas (-45) VS #25 Louisiana-Monroe / PASS rank
Like Alabama versus South Florida earlier this year, this is a game that’s easy to assume will be a blowout. Alabama couldn’t cover a 31.5 spread. Don’t be baited into thinking this is an easy cover.
#10 Oklahoma State (-2.5) VS #14 Utah / PASS rank
The Big XII keeps up the quality viewing after UCF’s stunner in the opener last week. Utah QB Cam Rising is expected to play which makes this game tough to predict. sTem rankings could provide an edge, and are #21 for the Utes / #31 for the Cowboys.
While it’s not top-ranked, Army at Temple tonight could be an interesting one to watch. Can the Black Knights can stay up on the leaderboard, or are they just running ops as an imposter? Good luck to you, your teams, and on any bets you’re making. With the reigning PASS leader on a bye, can anyone catch up to them?
9/20 EDIT: Army versus Temple is next week’s early game, and last night we were treated to South Alabama and Appalachian State. That’s what I get for using TV scheduling instead of the trusty schedule on Sports Reference. A Friday kickoff note was added to Nebraska/Illinois.
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