2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks — Week 8
Has a curse on #1 begun? Get objective odds for Georgia @ Texas and more.
Opinion polls are just that: opinions, subjective value carrying little worth. Each week, this system identifies the Top 25 FBS football programs in terms of objective performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll visualize how top teams are trending, as well as each conference’s total value.
Writing from the road this week, I’m noticing a lot of colds are starting to go around. The weather may be getting colder as the NCAA college football competition is heating up. FBS teams recently seen atop these performance charts certainly have had their share of sniffles, as the number one team in the land has suffered a loss for the second week in a row. Is a #1 curse developing? Texas certainly wants to buck this new trend, while everyone else wants to remind them that bad things happen in threes.
The PASS Top 25
Here are the teams with the best current performance in the nation following the Week 7 games.
The Longhorns unsurprisingly gained ground after punting Oklahoma from the Top 25 altogether. Ohio State’s drop wasn’t as steep as the previous week’s, with the upset-bid Oregon Ducks also seen in this same Top 25. Vanderbilt is still climbing but isn’t yet cracking the list of top performing teams in the country. Alabama, by the way, has bounced back. As narrow as their margin of victory was, South Carolina was a valuable opponent. This highlights how much stronger the Tide’s schedule has been compared with other teams near the top, including the new leaders in Austin.
There’s a big gap after the top two schools, as the Buckeyes tumble down into the second tier of playoff-hopefuls. Pitt, Indiana, and Iowa State anchor this zone alongside newcomer Notre Dame, who have made the long climb back after a huge early season loss. Each of those schools hold a PASS value well over 25, with a bit of a gap occurring before a much more chaotic third tier. Mississippi’s close loss on the road at LSU saw them slide into that grouping, currently led by BYU and Georgia.
Navy, UNLV, and Army are all putting together very strong Group of 7 performances. Because of each team’s oSoS (Objective Strength of Schedule), PASS is the equalizer that shows how these Group of 7 teams could probably hang with Power conference competition. Boise State might be getting more action in the press right now, though haven’t put up as impressive of numbers given their level of competition so far. And all the way at the bottom, Arkansas State have checked in to maintain the low point for the FBS. The other 108 schools are between them and Boise State.
The action in 2024 feels like considerably higher stakes than last year as teams remain very tightly grouped at lower PASS value threshold. Let’s examine last year:
USC suffered a historic dropoff after Week 7, but were still above 30 in PASS value. Michigan began running wild, climbing to 68.64 — and no, that’s not just their scandal doing the talking. It’s common to see teams begin to reach into a higher range as the college football season hits its midway point. This year there are no teams above 50 heading into Week 8; in 2023 there were 4. There are 2 teams above 40 in 2024; last year there were 6. This year there are 6 teams above 30; last year it was 11, and so on.
Blame conference realignment, blame buzzsaw schedules in those new-look power conferences, or heck, even blame Michigan’s drama (I err on the side of everybody does it, especially after catching that Netflix doc). Or don’t blame anybody! I see this as a good, or even great thing: Tighter groupings of teams means a more competitive landscape across all of FBS college football.
In 2023 the playoff teams seemed relatively clear for almost the entire second-half of the season. Then the CFP committee made egregiously glaring errors (Alternatively: exceptionally emotional decisions) in their selections. I guess I should thank them, it made picking #7 Texas to lose an incredibly easy decision. If this current level of competition holds and no teams skyrocket away from the pack, I expect this 2024 expanded playoff to make bowl season more exciting than ever.
Week 8
The tWin% Top 25
“Wins are everything” —sportsperson
“Wins aren’t everything” — also sportsperson
The above is what we hear week-in, week-out, as media personalities hem and haw with no method to their madness. In the tWin% Top 25, collecting wins over FBS teams is everything with performance as the first tie-breaker. If you prefer a system that gives all game-winning teams equal footing, this table represents a playoff race that does so.
While this table is essentially the opposite of what you can expect out of the CFP committee, it sure is fun to see the actual winningest teams in 2024. Texas takes over the lead here too, being joined by Penn State as the only two teams in America with no losses and zero games played against the FCS. Tracking the Army/Navy race of 2024, the service academies are now checking in at #5 and #7.
It’s noteworthy that Navy is neck-and-neck with the performance grade of Oregon; not looking like an imposter at all. There are certainly several of those hanging around — although don’t count out Louisiana-Monroe yet. The Warhawks made their way back at a rapid pace after being completely run off the ranch by the Longhorns. Last week Arizona State appeared the odds-on favorite against an over-rated Utah team (#35), but they weren’t able to make a huge leap, only moving 2 spots up to #16.
Highest Rise
#101 Ball State (From #128). Two weeks in a row for a #1 loser, and two weeks in a row for a #101 winner! Ball State gets unmired and records their first 2024 victory over an FBS team with a 37–35 win over zero-win Kent State. The Cardinals found some light, and you’d just love to see that momentum keep going. Unless you’re a fan of a MAC school still on their schedule.
Biggest Fall
#59 Oregon Stage (From #33). Deja vu? This is already the Beavers second appearance this season in the loss-column of shame after plummeting in Week 4. Oregon State is this years’ edition of a team that can’t fly towards the sun without getting burned. It was never going to be an easy season for these tag-team exiles of the PAC12, but there’s still plenty of time for this team to climb up again. Or, you know, tumble downwards.
The sTem Top 25
The sTem Top 25 grades teams’ offenses and defenses on a per-play basis to see how efficiently they score, and prevent scoring. sTem also rebounded this week. It is now back to predicting over 70% of winners on the season as a whole.
Well, it’s Texas here, too. They’ve rambled in and stolen all three of the crowns from last week’s triple-crowner, Ohio State. If you were questioning Army’s validity above, it may be time to reconsider: The Black Knights are now the nation’s second most efficient team on a per-play basis.
Conference Ranks
Checking in on the conference values, there’s less and less shake-up as we progress more deeply into conference play, although the Independents and the PAC12 are still ping-ponging about.
Week 8 Games to Watch
These games of the week track some of the best matchups between the top-ranked teams of PASS and sTem, as well as the tightest matchups between G7 and P4 teams. Odds are as of 11:00PM EST on Oct. 15.
#2 Alabama (-3) @ #21 Tennessee / PASS rank
Alabama once again has a huge margin in PASS performance… Over the past two weeks that’s led to a loss and a nearly-given-away game. It’s hard to pick confidently on covering a spread when these teams are also the 8th and 9th-ranked teams in sTem. Consider that the Vols have the 4th-place defense in terms of DSRS, while Alabama’s 10th-ranked offense (OSRS) sure looks a lot better than Tennessee’s, way back at #96 (South Carolina is #49 for context). I’m leaning towards this being a grindhouse rather than a shootout.
#1 Texas (-3.5) VS #9 Georgia / PASS rank
Texas now has the stage, but can they hold the objective crown for more than a week? As noted above, the Longhorns are #1 in sTem; the Dawgs are #23. Georgia, while over-loved by the pollsters, still has the 24th-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense. Texas has the #1 defense in all the land, but they do have a glaring weakness: The 47th-ranked offense. Even after putting down an Oklahoma team that looked decent, but not great. Make that two glaring weaknesses, as UGA has the 8th-ranked oSoS and Texas’ objective schedule is ranked 75th. If Texas wins, they’ll go a long way in solidifying their playoff status. If they lose, well, the numbers won’t be terribly surprised.
#119 South Florida(-13.5) @ #117 UAB / PASS rank
This is the closest game of the week in terms of PASS values. After two weeks running of predicting high-flying games decided by 2 points in this spot, a 13.5 spread might seem like a bit much. UAB has played the tougher oSoS to this point, as well (#31 to #51), and that includes losses to *checks notes* three teams in the tWin% top 25, a hard-fought game against Arkansas, and a Tulane team many people may once have expected to see in the polling Top 25s. South Florida has had their own buzzsaw of a schedule including Alabama and Miami (FL), and has appeared absolutely toothless in their losses. USF’s advantage is tempo — the Bulls hold the 110th-ranked sTem over the 130th-ranked Blazers.
#33 Arizona State @ #38 Cincinnati (-2.5) / PASS rank
This is rated the most competitive matchup between Power Conference teams this week. Arizona State has impressed at 5–1, so why is Vegas favoring Cincinnati? Look under the hood at performance and you’ll see the best team the Sun Devils have beaten is Utah (Unranked and listed as the underdog here at #34 last week). Their one loss comes against a Texas Tech team that these same Bearcats hung 41 points on. State has one loss by 8 points. Cincinnati’s two losses are by a combined 4 points — both to Top 25 tWin% teams —to Texas Tech, a 1-point stunner to #5 Pitt. These teams are #52 and #45 in sTem, respectively. ASU is #51 on Offense and #52 on Defense. Cincy is #33 on offense and #66 on Defense. Game of the week potential and leaning towards a high flying score? Absolutely.
Enjoy the games. Good luck to your teams or on any bets you’re inclined to make. If you’re in the fall-weather zones, throw on an extra layer — hopefully you won’t need any more tissues than the cold and flu season are already calling for. Who will be #1 next week?
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