2024 NCAA Football Objective Ranks — Week 9
Curses confirmed and close matchups. Who’s #1 now?
Opinion polls are just that: opinions, subjective value carrying little worth. Each week, this system identifies the Top 25 FBS football programs in terms of objective performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll visualize how top teams are trending, as well as each conference’s total value.
This is a hectic week, not just for college football, but for me. While teams are making major moves up and down the rankings, I am packing up a home and going up and down a lot of stairs. As such, this week’s entry will be pretty short. Let’s get to the good stuff.
The PASS Top 25
The curse is official! For a third straight week, we’ve seen the #1 performing team in the nation fall victim to their strong power conference schedules. Last week the Texas shortcomings were laid bare in this space, with a middling oSoS (Objective Strength of Schedule) and a suspect offense that were trucked by a balanced Georgia team.
Indiana is our new #1 moving into Week 9. Can the Hoosiers hold off the Huskies at home and cast this curse aside? They’ve got a better chance of doing so than our previous leaders, as Washington is ranked all the way back at #47.
Oregon storms up into 2nd place after a predictable blowout over Purdue. Notre Dame follows the Ducks in 3rd, solidly winning over a fading Georgia Tech team. This playing field remains incredibly even, as no one comes close to the PASS rating over 77 that Michigan held at this point of 2023. It would be a surprise for more than one team to even surpass a rating of 50 next week.
Week 8
The tWin% Top 25
In the tWin% Top 25, collecting wins over FBS teams is everything, with the performance seen above as tie-breaker. If you prefer a system that gives all game-winning teams equal footing, this table represents a playoff race that does so.
Penn State stands alone with the one true perfect record, with zero losses and all of their wins coming against FBS programs. Texas falls to 11th; not all that terrible of a drop as the margins between tWin% become thinner. Memphis joins at #22 as the latest possibly-imposter, possibly-for-real team. You’ll note Alabama is not here, as the current table of game-winners doesn’t have room for anyone with two losses — no matter how fancy those losses might be.
Highest Rise
#54 Marshall (From #78). It’s been a bouncy year for the Thundering Herd in the standings, but a 15-point win in a game predicted to be close against Georgia State was all it took to create the largest leap of the week.
Biggest Fall
#74 James Madison (From #35). The Dukes were ranked all the way up at #21 a few weeks ago but have proven to be imposters, crashing all the way out after losing two of three. Making this all the more surprising is JMU’s placement in the sTem table below. Untimely penalties can be a real drag on a team with an otherwise impressive tempo.
The sTem Top 25
The sTem Top 25 grades teams’ offenses and defenses on a per-play basis, to see how efficiently they score and prevent scoring. sTem also rebounded this week. It is now back to predicting over 70% of winners on the season as a whole.
The service academies aren’t just leading the American Conference, they’re dueling near the top of these metrics in what’s become one of the most exciting races of the year. Army has been leapfrogged by Navy, as the Midshipmen now claim the 2-spot.
Week 8 Games to Watch
These games of the week track some of the best matchups between the top-ranked teams of PASS and sTem, as well as the tightest matchups of the week. Odds are as of 9:00AM EST on Oct. 24.
#78 Michigan State @ #79 Michigan (-5.5) / PASS rank
This is the closest matchup of the week in current performance. The Wolverines may have home advantage and will certainly be motivated to try to turn their season around. sTem doesn’t sort things out, with these teams ranked 85 and 87, respectively. This game is a true coin flip.
#21 LSU @ #18 Texas A&M (-3) / PASS rank
Here’s a battle between two teams with very similar resumes. After enduring opening week losses, they’ve both managed to claw their way back up into the Objective Top 25. A&M has a slight edge in sTem, ranked at #24 to LSU’s #33. The spread isn’t huge, but this has the feeling of a game where results could go down to the final minute.
Enjoy the games and good luck to your teams, or on any bets you’ll be making. Hopefully you’ll come out of the weekend feeling far less cursed than the top spot of the objective leaderboard.
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