Ranking 2023 NCAA Football Teams Objectively, Week 10
The CFP polls are here …and full of bias. What did the committee get wrong?
For more about tracking performance objectively and terminology referenced here, please refer to the season kickoff.
The Week 10 rankings have been revealed by the CFP, and SEC fans in particular felt Georgia should have been usurpers of the top spot. These objective rankings are here to clear everything up: should the Ohio State be in front, or the Dawgs? The answer is the same as last week…
Neither. Michigan remains the school with the best PASS (Performance against strength of schedule). PASS is an ideal way to rank teams because it looks at every team’s margins of points and yards (Gained and allowed), and then determines if a team over- or under-performed the average contest. To put that in simpler terms: Michigan has outperformed the average opponent of their opponents by the biggest margins.
The CFP chair, Boo Corrigan, did his best to defend their subjectively chosen #1. Let’s take a closer look at Georgia’s win over Missouri for comparison’s sake and see if the SEC’s side of the argument has merit. On the surface, it was a convincing enough 30–21 victory. Diving deeper, we can see that Georgia outperformed Missouri’s average opponents by 41.7 yards and scored 6 points more than the Tigers typically allow. On the other side of the ball, UGA held Mizzou 71.1 yards and 7.9 points below their season averages. Pretty solid numbers, but not necessarily among the best. Consider that LSU put up 189.6 more yards and 25 more points against this same defense’s averages and Georgia’s performance begins to pale.
This has largely been 2023's objective narrative for UGA — solid performances — but underwhelming in comparison to the dominance of the past couple years. On the season, Georgia’s performance when compared to the average performance against the same teams has them scoring 10.225 more PPG (Points per game) and allowing 10.212 fewer PPG. That’s really strong! Now look at the objective #1, Michigan, under the same lens: scoring 16.167 more PPG than their opponents’ opponents, while allowing 15.9 fewer PPG. A look at that dominant spread follows below in the weekly visual.
This is the point where someone generally snaps back with “Yeah, but strength of schedule!”. Okay, let’s look at the oSoS (objective strength of schedule), untainted by any subjective rankings or other junk data:
#59 Michigan (17.725)
#82 Georgia (14.775)
Georgia didn’t have the worst FCS opponent in Tennessee-Martin (Currently 7–2), but Michigan didn’t schedule an FCS cupcake at all which certainly factors in. Neither team has one of the strongest schedules this year and it truly feels like a year where a lot is still up for grabs in a playoff scenario. It’s going to be exciting to see if these teams can keep up their respective paces against stronger opponents ahead.
Further detractors may shout “Sure, but why trust these numbers at all?”. Every method and metric has its ups and downs, it’s true. And most of those subjective ratings (A certain major media player’s FPI, for example) don’t publicly publish their ratios of success. That can leave a lot of doubt among fans in the landscape, especially after a week with a ton of broken spreads and unexpected outcomes. Even so, this past week PASS correctly predicted 70.49% of outcomes, just above its season total of 69.61%. This has been the lowest performance in the past 5 years of running this method, yet still presents a promising ratio of success.
The Objective Top 25
In terms of an objective ranking where wins and tWin% (True win percentage) matter most, it’s immediately obvious that not a lot has changed up top.
Oklahoma’s loss in the final installment of Big XII ‘bedlam’ is the biggest move of note here, putting a significant dent in a playoff hopeful. Oklahoma State enters the picture as a result, with Oregon State and Utah reappearing after one-week absences. Air Force also took its first loss of the season; blame the pressure of the CFP choosing them as the lone G5 team to appear in the initial rankings.
As much as it can be nice to say that wins matter most, it’s highly justifiable to exclude a team like Liberty from the playoff even if they run the table towards an undefeated season. A schedule as weak as the FBS has ever seen and a middling performance against it aren’t likely to sway any of the CFP committee into believing that’s a real playoff team.
The Objective Performance-Based Top 25
The CFP moved in a positive direction from last week’s initial playoff rankings, from off by a collective 206 ranking spots to just 144, a perfect testament to the bias we all have when it comes to ranking things subjectively or by a consensus opinion. The objective playoff field remains the same: Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, and Washington.
The field of imposters shrank by one, with now just four teams underrepresented in the CFP rankings. Teams like Notre Dame and USC have 3 losses now, but have performed at a high level against much stronger competition, while maintaining high performance scores. And will the G5’s best team, James Madison, ever get any love from the committee?
Here’s this week’s visualization of those top PASS grades:
Here’s a link to the interactive chart. As before, Boston College represents the weakest performance to date, with the 107 other schools falling between them and Kansas.
The Three Tiers:
The Playoff Contenders (40+ PASS): Michigan and Ohio State both improved by near-identical margins. Florida State won 24–7 away at Pitt, but that performance against a much weaker opponent reflected a drop-off from their overall body of work. Washington put together two straight weeks of improvement after waffling back and forth for a month or so. Alabama may have had to injure LSU’s quarterback to create a wider scoring margin, but it moves them staunchly into the playoff picture as a contender all the same.
The Elite (20-40): The aforementioned Georgia took a leap to toe the line with becoming a true playoff contender. Penn State is right behind them after a 51–15 demolishing of a Maryland team fading from earlier spotlights. Mississippi and Oregon are primed to push for more relevance this weekend, while Texas through LSU likely have to pull together much bigger wins if they’re going to be a true contender.
Everybody Else: Tennessee and James Madison are right on the cusp of elite and will be moving up if they win this weekend. Kansas State’s stay amongst the elite was brief, but hanging around into overtime against Texas saw them only lose a little ground. Duke and North Carolina are both poised to rebound, but with the tobacco road game looming only one of them can.
Highest rise
#77 Texas Tech. Beating a conference rival as a clear underdog has to feel good for a Red Raiders team that started off with rough, close losses to the likes of a very strong Oregon and hardy Wyoming squad. They rise 18 spots.
Hardest fall
#42 Georgia State/#49 Rutgers. There’s nothing fun about putting together solid performance numbers over the course of season only to run into your conference’s resident buzzsaw. That’s just what happened to these two as they were tossed aside by James Madison and Ohio State, falling 15 spots apiece.
sTem ranks, Week 10
Michigan dipped just a touch but remains the de facto leader here. Scoring tempo isn’t everything, but it can help inform a close game. In 2023, the team with the higher sTem has won roughly 66% of matchups.
Games to Watch
Here are a few key matchups this weekend, led by their tWin% rank and an objectively-generated, sTem based point spread.
#30 USC at #13 Oregon (-10)
It feels like a lot of PAC12 games have been featured. The high flying offenses and porous defenses of the conference do make for particularly entertaining contests. Can Oregon bring the stout version of their defense that crushed Utah, or will they end up trading blows as they did in the loss to Washington? You wouldn’t be alone if the Ducks schedule strength makes you do a double-take.
sTem rank: #20 USC 0.222 // #2 Oregon 0.432
PASS rank: #14 USC 25.73 // #9 Oregon 31.75
oSoS rank: #22 USC 23.625 // #107 Oregon 11.1
#11 Mississippi at #5 Georgia (-5)
Mississippi hasn’t drawn as much chatter for their play on the field this year as their coach has for his behavior, but they’ve been putting together a very solid year in the shadows of the SEC’s recent regulars. A win over the opinion pollster darlings would put their on-field play squarely in the spotlight. A convincing win for the Dawgs would likely move the needle even further than last week.
sTem rank: #11 Mississippi 0.241 // #9 Georgia 0.304
PASS rank: #8 Mississippi 36.40 // #6 Georgia 39.42
oSoS rank: #30 Mississippi 22.075 // #82 Georgia 14.775
#1 Michigan (-5) at #7 Penn State
Can Michigan keep their impressive performance numbers going against the strongest defense they’ve seen yet? A dip in performance numbers could threaten the #1’s reign. A likely dip is still better than suffering a loss here; former #1 USC can attest to the brutal fall. The Big Ten has the top 4 teams in DSRS over at Sports-Reference and it’s likely the winner of this game could take over that top spot as well.
sTem rank: #1 Michigan .530 // #7 Penn State .328
PASS rank: #1 Michigan 84.47 // #7 Penn State 39.17
oSoS rank: #59 Michigan 17.725 // #66 Penn State 17.275
Will we have a new #1 next week? Enjoy the games, good luck to your teams and on your picks.
Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed this, please consider sharing it with a wider audience! For the full rankings of all 133 teams or if you’d like a particular team or game featured, reach out to me, or drop a comment. Stay tuned for more updates and announcements, including the 2023 Objective Bowl Game Projections.
