Ranking 2023 NCAA Football Teams Objectively, Week 11
The CFP polls are updated …and full of bias. How far off is the committee?
Welcome to this week’s edition of a column tracking bias-free rankings of NCAA FBS football teams. For more about tracking performance objectively and the terminology referenced here, please refer to the season kickoff.
Week 11 is in the books and the CFP has released their rankings. After a week of improvement, those ranks are now nearly as off-the-mark as where they began in Week 9. In a move of subjective unity with the opinion polls, Georgia now sits atop the playoff tree as their #1. There’s no doubting that the Bulldogs have strung together their two best wins of the season in back-to-back triumphs over Missouri and Mississippi. There’s also a certain ever-looming elephant in that same SEC room: Alabama’s PASS (Performance against strength of schedule) against LSU and Kentucky has been even better over the same span.
While no committee should be forgiven for their bias, this committee at least can lean on Georgia’s undefeated record. Where that decision becomes problematic is in their obvious disdain for the Group of Five. If wins are all that matter, the Group of Five deserves a lot more presence in the rankings, with two undefeated programs and two more with just 1 loss. If the gears shift to claim overall performance is what really matters the Group of Five still deserves more love, with 3 teams featured in the PASS Top 25. As it stands the committee only respects a 9–1 Tulane team that is ranked all the way back at #24.
While the Group of Five may not have any serious contenders for a playoff spot this year, the committee’s willingness to ignore several high-flying teams altogether is both astounding and completely expected. Cincinnati in 2021 became a benchmark for G5 inclusion, when a lot of moments broke just the right way to sway the committee’s vibes-based decision making. But while the Bearcats led the entire FBS field in tWin% (True win percentage) at the time, they finished the season ranked back at #22 in PASS, going on to an unsurprising loss to a Crimson Tide side that was the regular season’s #1 PASS performer. Back to 2023, a G5 team currently sits at #13 in PASS and it’s definitely not who the committee thinks.
For any G5 team to enter this playoff picture major upsets would have to take place in these remaining weeks. At least 9 of them —with some teams potentially needing 2 losses. As with most long odds, it’s not impossible for the true-G5-flag-bearer James Madison to make the objective top 4, but their chances at this point probably rival those of creating a perfect March Madness bracket.
Still, having a chance at all is more interesting than a committee fully committed to biased exclusions.
The Objective Top 25
When wins matter most, tWin% became even stodgier than last week with the top 9 teams all remaining firmly entrenched. 9 is also the number of G5 teams appearing in this week’s list of the best objective records.
By this metric, it makes sense that we’d see a more equitable ratio of Group of Five teams amongst the Power 5 as all conferences have the same chances of containing a dominant team that racks up wins in conference play. In creating the best possible playoff field, putting wins first just isn’t efficient. Michigan versus Liberty in a playoff game is a massacre no one but the most self-flagellating Flame would want to see.
The Objective Performance-Based Top 25
Here’s the reshuffling the deck of contenders based on PASS, with sTem (Scoring tempo) presented alongside for additional tiebreaking context. This week we’ve got a new claimant to a playoff spot.
That team is Alabama. The Tide probably won’t roll for long in this spot, given the hit all teams take for playing lower-division competition and a tie-up with the FCS’ Chattanooga next up on the calendar. It’s a chance for every team playing FBS competition this weekend to make up or gain ground. Florida State will open that door even wider with their own FCS opponent in North Alabama.
The CFP committee wants to select the 4 most deserving teams but has never done a particularly good or convincing job of defining what exactly ‘deserving’ means. The lens of objectivity PASS provides makes it hard to overlook schools like Michigan and Washington who play a full slate of FBS opponents, generally leading to a stronger oSoS (Objective strength of schedule). It’s equally as hard to overlook a top squad like Georgia scoring a full 12% of their points thus far against a lower-division team that’s getting paid to get stomped.
The selection mentality of the CFP rubber-banded back all the way to an “off by” score on the wrong side of 200 (With UR : unranked representing 25 apiece). Last week an Oklahoma State team ranked #40 was the worst addition to the top 25, making them an easy team to pick against. UCF repaid that knowledge in spades, drubbing the Cowboys 45–3 and dropping them to a pedestrian 75th rank in PASS. The committee remains intent on …teasing their fans? Keeping Oklahoma State on their board at this point feels cruel.
Let’s look at the teams who actually are turning in quality bodies of work:
The interactive chart is here. Boston College’s worst PASS value is shown for an idea of the entire range.
The Three Tiers:
The Playoff Contenders (40+ PASS): Michigan and Ohio State both soared, with the Wolverines impressing as they put away a Penn State team that still resides in the PASS top 10. Alabama and Georgia also have the aforementioned 2-week stretches of excellence providing similar rises. Washington and Florida State) have continued winning these past few weeks as well, but are not generating performances that clearly outdo the averages of other teams against the same competition.
The Elite (20–40): It’s getting crowded here! Oregon State quietly took the biggest leap in the PAC12 after dropping 62 points on Stanford, zooming just above their in-state rival. The Beavers have a real chance to change the entire field with Washington and Oregon as their two remaining games. A win this weekend would likely jump Oregon State into the contender ranks. Oregon will look to steamroll Arizona State on the road with hopes of regaining ground in a hot conference race.
Oklahoma pulled themselves back up with a big 39-point margin of victory over a decent West Virginia team and are poised to get back to contender-level if they can put up similar big numbers at BYU. LSU, James Madison and Kansas State all had convincing performances while Penn State, USC and especially Mississippi saw their stocks drop. Missouri’s stranglehold game against a Tennessee offense unaccustomed to single-digit scores also bounced them back to elite territory.
Everybody Else: MACtion! Toledo and Miami of Ohio are playing with top 25 sTem scores, 15th and 18th, respectively. If the wins keep coming at that tempo then joining the ranks of the elite is within reach. Iowa might not have any meaningful opposition remaining on the schedule but their stout defense mustering a shutout or otherwise wide margin of victory would probably do the trick, too. Duke ironically did just enough in a 2OT loss at North Carolina to remain above the Tar Heels in performance.
Highest rise
#108 Arizona State. A surprise win on the road at UCLA wasn’t a result many saw coming for a team previously ranked #123 out of 133. As the rankings start to solidify after this many games, that 15-place jump is momentum the Sun Devils will look to build upon. After losing by just 8 on the road at Washington, what can they do at home against Oregon?
Hardest fall
#82 Florida. The Gators have flirted with this dubious award several times this season but hadn’t been saddled with the biggest boulder until this week. The 35–52 loss to LSU wasn’t the very worst of the week, but this middle of the pack zone is very tightly bunched together. Many teams in this range won over the past week, dropping Florida 13 spots down the board.
Games to Watch
It feels like there’s always a bit of lull before the big rivalry week. Here are a few matchups of promising entertainment, their tWin% rank and an objectively-generated sTem-based point spread.
#21 UNLV at #23 Air Force (-1)
This is two of the three teams sitting at 8–2 in the Mountain West and vying for the conference crown. Air Force has stumbled and is on a 2-loss streak heading into what now feels like their biggest game of the year. Can they bounce back or will UNLV continue to add wins to an unexpectedly wonderful journey in the hottest conference race? It’s almost but not quite a coin-flip.
sTem rank: #30 UNLV 0.155 // #23 Air Force 0.182
PASS rank: #30 UNLV 10.34 // #39 Air Force 8.31
oSoS rank: #104 UNLV 11.1 // #122 Air Force 7.725
#20 SMU (-7) at #25 Memphis
For anyone who enjoys pronouncing acronyms as words, I find Smoo to be one of the more fun offerings out there. The Mustangs have amassed big numbers against bad competition, but Memphis has a bit more to offer on both sides of the ball. This game should be high octane and is definitely one of the best contests the American conference will offer up this year.
sTem rank: #8 SMU 0.303 // #34 Memphis 0.137
PASS rank: #27 SMU 12.00 // #32 Memphis 9.92
oSoS rank: #128 SMU 6.6 // #98 Memphis 12.425
#3 Washington at #19 Oregon State (PUSH)
Here’s the coin flip. This is the playoff spot with the most at stake this week. With 2 of the top 5 teams playing against FCS competition this weekend a real chance emerges for a team like Washington to either solidify their bid or be dashed upon the rocks. Based on these numbers Oregon State may have more momentum here than most folks realize, and this objectively-generated spread came out to less than half of a point in Oregon State’s favor (31.2 — 30.75789672).
sTem rank: #7 Washington 0.307 // #11 Oregon State 0.269
PASS rank: #5 Washington 50.97 // #7 Oregon State 37.50
oSoS rank: #69 Washington 16.6 // #24 Oregon State 22.925
Bonus bad! #133 Kent State at #117 Ball State (-5)
Sam Houston State did it! And by ‘it’ I mean defied expectations by defeating a real, actual FBS team. Ouch for Louisiana Tech. Here’s the new FBS basement floor of Kent State heading into a matchup with a possibly-overconfident Ball State, coming off of a close win over an NIU team fielding their own nightmare season. These MAC matchups aren’t always pretty; to be fair these teams also aren’t the worst performers around.
sTem rank: #133 Kent State -0.301 // #121 Ball State -0.162
PASS rank: #77 Kent State -0.12 // #104 Ball State -1.43
oSoS rank: #91 Kent State 13.525 // #85 Ball State 13.975
Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed this, please consider sharing it with a wider audience, friend, foe, or anyone who loves college football. For the full rankings of all 133 teams or if you’d like a particular team or game featured, reach out to me, or drop a comment. Follow along next week for more updates and announcements to come, including the 2023 Objective Bowl Game Projections.
