Ranking 2023 NCAA Football Teams Objectively, Week 12
The CFP polls are updated …what did they get wrong?
Welcome to this week’s edition of bias-free rankings of all NCAA FBS football teams. Throughout the season, each team’s performance metrics are tracked by a truly objective formula (No inclusion of pre-season ranks, opinion polls, scouting grades, or any other human-fabricated numbers) and ranked only by what has happened on the field. For more about tracking performance objectively and the terminology referenced here, please refer to the season kickoff.
Rivalry week (for most teams) is here and it’s definitely time to give thanks. As our bellies settle, the Friday slate of games will kick off one of the most exciting weekends of college football in recent memory. Week 11 already settled some big conference rivalries, taking a few big strides towards solidifying conference races. Washington put down an Oregon State uprising to solidify their hold on the PAC12. UNLV continued their huge program turnaround by clipping Air Force’s wings to take the Mountain West lead. With some major milestones carving the field, how did the committee fare in their rankings when graded objectively?
Spoiler: It’s gone from spooky on Halloween to their kookiest week yet, with 6 imposters sitting amongst their top 25 and one as high as 15th. Let’s take a look at what’s really happening with these teams.
The Objective Top 25
The committee might say wins matter the most. It’s hard to take that seriously when a 4-loss Tennessee and Clemson are ranked and several G5 programs with 1, 2 or 3 losses and comparable oSoS (Objective strength of schedule) are nowhere to be seen. When tWin% (True win percentage) leads the way, the Week 12 field looks like this:
Michigan, Washington and Liberty are the only 3 remaining programs that have defeated a full slate of FBS opponents this season, with Florida State taking a dive after playing a weaker FCS opponent (North Alabama) than either Georgia or Ohio State. tWin% also shows how Group of 5 programs like Toledo, SMU, Troy, Miami Ohio and UTSA probably aren’t getting their fair share of media attention for putting together stronger years than the majority of their Power 5 counterparts.
As we know, wins aren’t everything. The committee pays appropriate lip-service to wins, but if bowl season were based on the above there would likely be even more blowouts than we usually see. That’s where PASS (Performance against strength of schedule) sets the record straight and reveals which programs are outperforming the field.
The Objective Performance-Based Top 25
There’s a significant shakeup this week in both the CFP’s committee voting and in the objective ranks.
There are bound to be many Florida State fans angered by Washington’s displacement of their Seminoles. It turns out their gripe is justifiable. While FSU’s performance has dropped off to merely holding pace these past several weeks, the Huskies’ wins haven’t been impressive enough to take a significant leap in overall performance. Blame the suspect defenses of the PAC12, where most teams have also managed to have big days against those same opponents. It seems like the committee may be listing towards the rocks while hearing the siren’s song of the Heisman race. It should serve as a cautionary tale that last year’s PAC12 Heisman winner couldn’t beat a Group of 5 defense come bowl time.
Checking in on the visual race to the top, it looks like we’ve hit a boiling point going in to the biggest game of the year.
The interactive chart can be found here.
Michigan’s performance finally slowed down with a 7-point win over Maryland, making for one heck of a storyline. Is this just a case of overlooking the opponent before the looming showdown with Ohio State? Is the suspension of Coach Harbaugh taking its toll? The Wolverines will have to dispel a lot of noise if they hope to close the door on a Buckeyes team that has shown consistent improvement in their performance since Week 4.
While it hurt their tWin%, Alabama gets a sharp boost in PASS from a late-season FCS romp over Chattanooga. LSU got a similar boost as another SEC team choosing to eat their cupcake towards seasons’ end. Looking at the above chart, most of the steepest rises in performance took place early in the year when it’s more common to play a team from the lower division. That makes it all the more impressive when a team can make a similar steep rise against an FBS opponent.
The Three Tiers:
The Playoff Contenders (40+ PASS): Michigan and Ohio State lead the pack and Alabama is priming to try to steal #2 when one of them falls this weekend. With a significant enough spread in the marquee matchup, a playoff door may open for even more contenders. Can Florida State, Washington or Georgia put together a dominant enough performance to become the de facto #4? LSU snuck into the contender range and will be hoping for upsets in front of them.
The Elite (20–40): Penn State, Oklahoma, Texas and Oregon are all hoping for big enough wins and enough chaos in the ranks above to finish the season in the uppermost tier. Notre Dame, Kansas State, and Mississippi and aren’t as likely to make the ascension. If those teams don’t play down to weaker competition a big jump could still be in store. Oregon State has their own huge rivalry game — a big Beavers win could shake up the rankings even more. Louisville’s also got a solid matchup against a fading Kentucky team but even with a win likely won’t make much of an impact upon the ranking.
Missouri, James Madison and Toledo are all probably out of range and will hope to stay among this elite band. JMU and Toledo in particular can play for the pride of the G5 crown, but if they both play poorly…
Everybody Else: Miami of Ohio could just sneak ahead both of those teams if they win by a large margin over Ball State. Iowa and their defense have been steadily rolling along and another win over a mediocre Nebraska team likely won’t push them into the elite. USC and Texas A&M have played well enough against a high grade of competition to be in the top 25, but along with Liberty and SMU just don’t pose much of a threat to the teams ranked above them here.
Highest rise
#51 Texas Tech / #53 Boise State. It’s a tie between two teams who have been featured in these spots already this year, both moving up 17 spots. The Red Raiders really improved upon a slow start, having been the beneficiary of highest rise twice in the past three weeks. They’ve risen up like a phoenix all the way from #113 in Week 2. The Broncos has now won this award and the dubious honor below, rebounding from the previous dishonor that sunk them to being 93rd-ranked.
Hardest fall
#120 Southern Mississippi. Not all these endings are going so well. The Golden Eagles put up 20 points in a valiant effort but were still over-matched against a not-great Mississippi State team (Ranked 86th). It’s not likely to get better this weekend against a strong squad from Troy.
Overtime Bonus: Week 12 Conference Rankings
In several of the past seasons these ranks have shown some surprising results. This year, it’s a perhaps unsurprising yet informative look of how the conferences shake out in terms of PASS, sTem (Scoring tempo), and tWin%. The SEC leads the way in all three this year, with the Big Ten not far behind. What is surprising is how closely bunched the Group of 5 teams are, with the MAC just slightly ahead of the other 4.
Games to Watch
There’s the B1G matchup getting due press, but a bit of a lull in many traditional rivalry games that may feel lopsided this year. Here are a few that should still be worth the watch, along with their teams’ tWin% rank, and an objective, tempo-based point spread. Last week roughly held the season’s pace, with the higher PASS grade correctly predicting 46 of 64 games (71.88%, 70.06% on the year). And sTem had an abnormally strong week; the higher tempo team won 49 of 64 games (76.56%).
#24 Oregon St. at #10 Oregon (-7)
Tough sledding for the Beavers on the road after having their hopes dashed by Washington last week. Will this be a bounce-back week and revenge on the road, or another notch in the Ducks’ resume towards slim playoff hopes? Trusting in Oregon’s blazing tempo has paid off this year, but their weak objective schedule strength makes this feel far from a lock.
sTem rank: #17 Oregon St. 0.231 // #2 Oregon 0.414
PASS rank: #14 Oregon St. 29.86 // #11 Oregon 33.09
oSoS rank: #23 Oregon St. 23.225 // #116 Oregon 9.3
#37 Jacksonville State at #35 New Mexico State (PUSH)
While this game won’t turn CFP heads or make any impact upon the playoff race, this is one of the best matchups down the stretch in the G5. These two teams have played supremely easy schedules, though each have just 3 losses. The Aggies have one intangible motivator: going for an unlikely 10-win season that no one saw coming.
sTem rank: #35 J-ville State 0.133 // #22 NM State .177
PASS rank: #52 J-ville State 3.56 // #46 NM State 5.13
oSoS rank: #131 J-ville State 5.075 // #132 NM State 4.825
#29 North Carolina (-3) at #30 North Carolina State
Of all the U versus State games going down, this one might turn out to be the most closely matched. The Tar Heels have slowed down in recent weeks at about the same pace the Wolfpack have sped up. A few weeks ago this game looked like it might be another disappointing, lopsided affair. Now it looks like NC State’s momentum and home crowd give them a chance.
sTem rank: #29 North Carolina 0.151 // #58 NC State 0.061
PASS rank: #30 North Carolina 10.55 // #40 NC State 6.73
oSoS rank: #95 North Carolina 12.9 // #39 NC State 20.45
#5 Ohio State at #1 Michigan (-3.5)
Michigan’s got a slight edge, Ohio State has a ton of momentum. I’d be thankful just for this game to live up to the generational hype it’s been generating.
sTem rank: #3 Ohio State 0.369 // #1 Michigan 0.454
PASS rank: #2 Ohio State 86.15 // #1 Michigan 90.68
oSoS rank: #30 Ohio State 21.925 // #57 Michigan 18.15
That’s all for rivalry week. May your Thanksgiving weekend conflicts be limited to your college allegiances, and your football viewing be fruitful.
Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed this, please consider sharing it with a wider audience, friend, foe, or anyone who loves college football. For the full rankings of all 133 teams or if you’d like a particular team or game featured, reach out to me, or drop a comment. Follow along next week for more updates and announcements to come, including the 2023 Objective Bowl Game Projections.
