Ranking 2023 NCAA Football teams objectively, Week 2
AP and Coaches’ opinion polls are fun, but often inaccurate. sTem, PASS and tWin% to the rescue.
The FCS upsets are here! After Week 1 failed to see any FCS wins against members of the top flight, this week not one, or two, but three teams were embarrassed. Those losses still weren’t as embarrassing as any of the junk data (Anything created with the inclusion of preseason polls or recruit class rankings) that may have projected an 0–2 Baylor to be in the Top 25.
For true win percentage (tWin%), those losses had a very large impact. To reiterate from last week: playing an FCS opponent only awards a fraction of a win for the oft-lopsided contest. If an FBS program loses in that cupcake game? They lose a win from their schedule. That does mean it’s possible to fall to -1 wins, which is important not only as a dunce cap but as a statistical marker to create more diversity in the field. Think of it this way: If your team were tied in the win column with a team who had lost to an FCS team, you’d want to call that out as a good reason to be ranked higher or participate in a more lucrative bowl game.
This week, we celebrate little-mentioned Fordham, Idaho and Southern Illinois for putting the early dagger in the seasons of Buffalo, Nevada, and Northern Illinois. Nevada and Buffalo are deservedly at the bottom of all 133 teams after becoming winless and losing to FCS teams. Nevada also finds itself in last place for scoring tempo (sTem), their prospects for the year spiraling into bleak territory.
The Top 25
One addition this week: tracking the change between the previous week’s ranking for each team. More on the biggest rise and fall below.
The biggest difference between this ranking and the opinion polls remains the absence of teams who may be very strong, but haven’t yet proven on the field that they’re deserving of their high ranking. Objectively rewarding wins and giving no leeway to teams with a mark in the loss column should give an early to reveal some teams destined for later CFP rankings. An early loss doesn’t necessarily spell doom for your team, although several big names fell off the board here. Alabama fell all the way down to 48th in tWin%. With their PASS score, (Performance against Strength of Schedule), one would expect a quick climb back towards the top; that is, if the Tide pile up wins. The beauty of an objective ranking system is that the same opportunity is offered for every team.
Due to the doubling of available data and the drastic ratios that result, many teams rose or fell as many as 40 to 50 places in the rankings. Those early contests against the FCS are a major contributor, as seen with Georgia above. Taking down UT Martin and only getting a fraction of a win saw the Dawgs begin halfway down the rankings last week. Now that they’ve piled up points against an FBS Ball State we see their rank soar. Teams who were not major movers tend to be ones who played an FBS team in both Week 1 and 2. Many of our top teams are in this category, where their PASS grades reveal the strongest on-field play to date.
The most drastic moves this week both came out of the state of Illinois.
Highest rise
#51 Northwestern. The Wildcats were ranked #108 when they ran roughshod over a UTEP program that was previously ranked #86, winning 38–7. That dominance led to a truly impressive rank change of 57, the biggest of a highly turbulent week.
Hardest fall
#114 Northern Illinois. It had to be one of the teams that lost to an FCS foe, didn’t it? While Nevada’s loss may have been even worse, they were already in the basement. The Huskies won in Week 1, then followed it up with a painful in-state dog rivalry loss to the Salukis of Southern Ill. It’s hard to decide if that loss, or tumbling down 71 places from #43 last week stings more.
sTem ranks, Week 2
Getting into the games for Week 3, here’s a look at scoring tempo and the teams who have been hot on both sides of the ball. Former leader Oregon predictably could not keep up their insane pace from last week. Can USC top the chart for another week while on a bye? While it’s never a sure-fire predictor on its own, teams that maintain a higher sTem than their opponents tend to keep winning as the weeks progress.
Games between the Top 25 in sTem to watch
Only one for this week : #6 Washington vs. #19 Michigan St. Hopefully the competition lives up to this billing.
And an honorable mention to #22 WKU vs. #27 Ohio St. It’ll be interesting to see if that sTem rank creates any surprises for a Buckeyes team expected to make hay.
Thanks for checking in and good luck in your Week 3 matchups. Until next week!
For the full rankings of all 133 teams reach out to me here, or in the comments. More updates and announcements are on the way.
