Ranking 2023 NCAA Football teams objectively, Week 4
AP and Coaches’ opinion polls are fun …and full of bias. A truly objective look at on-field performance data.
For more on the stats seen here and how they track on-field performance objectively, refer to the season kickoff.
This past weekend had some wild results and wild finishes. The way-too-early simulator from last week lived up to its name, showing how objectively predicting an outcome based on limited data can produce results both way off the mark (Colorado/Oregon) and relatively close to reality (Ohio State/Notre Dame). Colorado not only failed to beat Oregon, but got absolutely drubbed. Why was the result so far off? One simple reason could be that prior to the game, neither team had yet played an opponent inside the top 75 of the FBS (TCU has since moved up to 54).
A more telling reason: While the teams matched up pretty closely in terms of commonly tracked stats (Like the ones used by Vegas, or classic Monte Carlo methods), sTem and PASS* metrics tracked here told a different story. Oregon was ranked #4 in sTem (scoring Tempo) while Colorado was #60. On a per play basis, Oregon picked apart its inferior competition in non-conference play more efficiently than Colorado had. Similarly, Oregon’s PASS grade was 28.44 to Colorado’s PASS of 10.24. Instead of simulating games this week, I’ll post these stats alongside their respective matchups below.
The Top 25
Last week #9 Colorado outranked Oregon in tWin% (True win percentage), which might seem odd — to be in line with the CFP committee’s own claims, wins still matter most. At the time, both teams were undefeated, but Colorado’s wins were all over FBS opponents for a perfect 100%. As an appropriate return for their performance against the Ducks, the Buffs are nowhere to be seen in the updated Top 25 (#33).
USC tops the leaderboard for the 4th straight week, with conference foe Washington right on their heels. Florida State moves up one spot as they also outpaced Oklahoma, whose scoring dropped off with 20 points on the road. Michigan rounds out the top 5 after knocking out and dropping the former #5 Rutgers (Now sitting at #30).
Liberty and James Madison are still lurking, undefeated but with PASS grades unlikely to threaten any of their competition. One component of the PASS grades is oSoS (objective strength of schedule), where Liberty is ranked 130th out of the 133 FBS teams. Those schools are joined by fellow bottom-rung undefeated teams Air Force (#128 oSoS) and Fresno State (#133, last place!) who have played well against lackluster competition. Georgia State continues to climb with a PASS grade that’s quite high for a team in the Group of Five (oSoS #67). Keep an eye on the Panthers if you’re looking for a true dark horse this year.
Highest rise
#84 Colorado State. CSU now look to be the biggest beneficiaries of their rivalry with Colorado, continuing their inspired play and getting their first win on the road over Middle Tennessee State. That win launched them out of the basement and moved the Rams up 41 spots all the way from #125.
Hardest fall
#86 Clemson. Season over? For a school that wants to contend for titles, it certainly looks like a tumble of 33 spots from #53 is an early nail in the coffin. A conference title doesn’t feel very attainable either when you’re sitting at 0–2 behind teams that have beaten you. While the Tigers showed progress since the big loss to Duke, they really needed the win over Florida State to prevent such a disastrous fall from grace.
sTem ranks, Week 4
After a tough bout where both defenses played well, Notre Dame and Ohio State’s explosive paces of play both took a hit. Ole Miss also dropped down and the victor of their game, Alabama, entered the picture at #25. Miami (FL), Duke, Kentucky and Michigan moved up to fill the void created by those teams. The rest of the sTem Top 25 is largely a game of musical chairs between teams from last week, with #1 USC and #9 Syracuse as the only two teams who didn’t move.
Games to Watch
#6 Texas vs. #20 Kansas
In the lone matchup of this week’s Top 25, Texas carries with them the profile of a runaway train that continues to pick up steam after their defeat of Alabama. The Longhorns are now looking ahead at trying to grab the Big XII title in their final season before joining the SEC. Kansas has been steadily improving and may be a bigger hurdle than expected along that path. Follow this one with cautious optimism: It’s worth noting that the PASS grades between these two teams have roughly the same divide as between Oregon and Colorado last week, so this could just as easily turn into a one-sided romp.
sTem rank: #18 Texas .346 // #42 Kansas .191
PASS rank: #11 Texas 29.62 // #28 Kansas 12.19
#15 Utah vs. #39 Oregon State
If USC, Washington and Oregon are the S-tier, or top teams of the PAC12, Utah and Oregon State (And WSU) are the current A-tier right behind them. This matchup will be between two teams with incredibly close PASS grades and hopefully that will predict this to be an action-packed, back-and-forth affair. The winner will keep PAC12 challenger hopes alive, while the loser will join Colorado in the B-tier. With such a close PASS grade rank will scoring tempo prove the determining factor?
sTem rank: #46 Utah: .174 // #20 Oregon State: .325
PASS rank: #23 Utah 15.59 // #24 Oregon State: 15.18
#9 Duke vs. #34 Notre Dame
How can Notre Dame follow up such an incredibly entertaining (If painful) game from last week? By playing a team with an even closer PASS grade rank to their own, of course. In taking that loss, the Irish may have crashed out of the Top 25, but still remain a top 10 team for PASS and sTem. The Blue Devils are ready to prove themselves and also in the top 10 for both of those performance scores, making this quite the heavyweight battle. oSoS might prove the important factor here, where ND’s schedule ranks #30 and the Blue Devils are a bit less tested at #56.
sTem rank: #6 Duke .463 // #10 Notre Dame .432
PASS rank: #7 Duke 33.57 // #9 Notre Dame 30.72
Good luck to your teams and your outcomes this weekend. Enjoy the games!
For the full rankings of all 133 teams or if you’d like a particular team or game featured, reach out to me here or in the comments. Stay tuned for more updates and announcements.
