Ranking 2023 NCAA Football teams objectively, Week 5
AP and Coaches’ opinion polls are fun …and full of bias. What do the rankings look like when free of junk data?
For more about the stats referenced here and how they track on-field performance objectively, please refer to the season kickoff.
Last week, we looked at three key matchups alongside their Scoring Tempo (sTem) and overall Performance Against Strength of Schedule (PASS). Those ranks gave clear insights and ended up more effective at correctly predicting the outcomes than a Monte Carlo-style simulation. Texas did end up easily handling Kansas, in line with what the large gaps in sTem and PASS between the teams indicated. Utah and Oregon State were neck and neck in their PASS grades, but Oregon State’s stronger sTem proved to be an accurate difference maker. Notre Dame and Duke had a less predictable outcome in a game that could’ve been considered a coin-flip, and the Irish winning in the final seconds of the game lived up to these teams’ similar ratings.
So how did those big matchups impact the rankings?
The Top 25
Duke tumbled, but remains in the picture amidst a growing group of one-loss teams. In an odd twist of fate, Notre Dame is just behind them at #26. The tWin% (True Win Percentage) of these two teams gives the slight edge to Duke, whose domination of a one-loss opponent in FCS Lafayette is objectively just a touch better than ND’s own win over two-loss FCS Tennessee State. Oregon State is also right on the fringes at #28 after inviting Utah to the one-loss party, as the Utes fell off the board (#32).
As the undefeated pool shrinks, some of the teams who endured early season losses are starting to rise back into the Top 25. Alabama and Texas A&M return after each enduring a three-week exile, while Iowa was only missing for one week. This very clearly illustrates the purpose of objective rankings. By eliminating the teams who are just .500, or who have losing records, space is allowed for teams that get off to hot starts and may become dark horse contenders for the championship. The objective ranking of this system identified teams like Missouri and Louisville as Top 25 teams weeks before the writers and coaches caught on.
Fresno State also entered the picture here one week earlier than in the AP Poll, and over there are the only Group of Five team to be featured. Are they actually the most deserving of the G5 teams? Let’s take a closer look at another component of the objective rankings: oSoS (Objective Strength of Schedule).
This helps paint a clearer picture showing why Fresno State, with the easiest schedule in the FBS, is currently ranked behind other G5 teams like Liberty, Marshall and Air Force in the objective Top 25. Of the undefeated G5 teams, Marshall and James Madison currently look like the ones to watch out for, having worked through tougher non-conference opponents than Fresno St., Liberty or Air Force. On the tougher side of scheduling, Coastal Carolina fans likely won’t feel any better about sitting at 2–3 — but do have the excuse of playing the most difficult slate in the Group of Five.
The power conferences are living up to that title this year. In three of the four previous seasons the AAC managed to outrank the ACC, the PAC12, or both in terms of PASS grades. This year the oSoS 25 strongest schedules currently all go to teams in the Power Five. It looks like the 2023 waves of realignment had the desired effect of consolidating power. Arizona State has bragging rights for playing the toughest schedule, while haters of Wisconsin have a solid argument in Luke Fickell’s team enjoying the softest calendar out of all power conference teams.
Highest rise
#68 Rice. The Owls notched their first-ever AAC win over East Carolina, and rise up 30 spots after playing quality football (#55th-ranked PASS), even if it’s not always against the greatest of opponents (#104th-ranked oSoS).
Hardest fall
#93 Boise State. The Broncos are playing tougher competition (#55th-ranked oSoS), but turning in underwhelming performances against them as well (#118th-ranked PASS). With the rest of their schedule now in the Mountain West, Boise St. should be afforded the opportunity to rise again after falling 22 spots.
sTem ranks, Week 5
The Trojans have been dethroned of the scoring tempo crown as conference-rival Oregon has taken over. Could this be a harbinger of things to come in the PAC12? Washington is also still in the top five and will be looking to spoil at least one other school’s big party, while UCLA and Oregon State are also still hanging around up here.
While some Group of Five teams are making hay of their bottom-rung scheduling, perhaps the biggest surprise in our sTem rankings is that Kentucky is currently the most explosive SEC team. That’s a title usually accustomed to being tied to Josh Heupel’s Tennessee’s offense, or the always-talked about Georgia and Alabama. That brings us to our…
Games to Watch
We’re looking at easily the best weekend of competition this season has offered yet. Check out these heavy-hitting tempo and performance matchups and see where there’s real upset potential:
#9 Georgia vs. #15 Kentucky
It’s now that part of the season where things really start heating up in conference play. As we saw above, Kentucky’s performance to date actually outranks Georgia’s. The Wildcats sTem currently outpaces the ‘Dawgs by no small margin, as well. These are really good signs for Kentucky as they try to levy an upset bid against the opinion pollster’s #1 darling. A 2.85 PASS / .031 sTem edge almost-but-didn’t work out for Duke against Notre Dame. That edge is just about twice as big for Kentucky in this game. Will this be the shock most of the country hungers for, or end up being more course correction for the objective rankings?
sTem rank: #13 Georgia .353 // #7 Kentucky .437
PASS rank: #12 Georgia 28.76 // #8 Kentucky 33.37
#22 Alabama vs. #23 Texas A&M
That’s not the only intense SEC battle this week. Here’s another that many predict could be hard fought and won by even narrower margins. The Tide and the Aggies are both looking to move back up into a playoff picture, knowing only one of them can. The numbers tell a little bit different of a story — the performance gap is larger than in the game above. While Alabama’s scoring tempo probably isn’t quite where they’d like it, they are still looking at favorable margins in this matchup.
sTem rank: #22 Alabama .304 // #32 Texas A&M .233
PASS rank: #13 Alabama 28.09 // #22 Texas A&M 16.92
#16 Maryland vs. #19 Ohio State
There are so many games happening with potential playoff implications for usual suspects and then here sits Maryland, who have quietly put together a season that currently ranks above Ohio State. This game is a bit more likely to be a reality check for the Terrapins based on their average oSoS rank (#72), but there’s a glimmer of upset potential here.
sTem rank: #6 Maryland .463 // #10 Ohio State .432
PASS rank: #7 Maryland 33.57 // #9 Ohio State 30.72
#4 Oklahoma vs. #6 Texas
As if all that wasn’t enough, we still have this game to talk about. Nothing to see here, just the objectively highest-ranked game of the season to date. This is as big as the red river rivalry has ever been. It’s a classic battle for the Big XII between the current class of the Big XII, with the winner on a much more likely path to taking that final conference trophy before tumbleweedin’ on over to the SEC hand-in-hand. Everybody’s still talking about Texas after their win over Alabama, but the objective rankings may surprise a few folks…
sTem rank: #4 Oklahoma .482 // #19 Texas .317
PASS rank: #5 Oklahoma 44.37 // #10 Texas 32.10
Phew. Let’s get ready for a big weekend. Good luck with your teams and your outcomes — next week we’ll see how much the potential playoff field may have changed. Enjoy the games!
For the full rankings of all 133 teams or if you’d like a particular team or game featured, reach out to me here or in the comments. Stay tuned for more updates and announcements.
