Ranking the 2023–24 NCAA College Football Playoff Objectively
The CFP made inherently biased choices that lacked consistency. Who should have been in?
Welcome to this week’s edition of bias-free rankings of all NCAA FBS football teams. Throughout the season, each team’s performance metrics are tracked by a truly objective formula (No inclusion of pre-season ranks, opinion polls, scouting grades, or any other human-fabricated numbers) and ranked only by what has happened on the field. For more about tracking performance objectively and the terminology referenced here, please refer to the season kickoff.
The general reaction to this playoff field is that the CFP committee failed.
Throughout the 2023 college football season this column has evaluated each FBS college football team by truly objective means, filtering out subjective data, also known as junk data. Almost all of the major media outlets find their metrics skewed by fabricated numbers, like preseason ranks, opinion polls, or recruit grades and ranks. True Win Percentage (tWin%), Performance Against Strength of Schedule (PASS), and Scoring Tempo (sTem) all focus solely on what teams have accomplished on the field, filtering out our natural human bias and traditional assumptions. At season’s end, PASS accuracy remained true: The team with the higher PASS ranking won over 72% of games throughout the entire season.
In the more recent weeks the CFP committee’s rankings were also under scrutiny; seeing how much the opinions of this group with questionable motives and financial incentives deviated from the reality of how teams were actually performing. The findings weren’t much of a surprise to anyone following the sport. The committee has undergone wild mental gymnastics to justify their ‘process’ to the outside world, while remaining clandestine about the actual process. By the omission of Florida State — a conference title winner with an undefeated season — they’ve made good on the promise that their goal is creating the best playoff field possible (with a very loose definition of best) and nothing an entire team has done actually matters.
The general reaction to this playoff field is that the CFP committee failed, but many questions remain. Did Florida State really deserve to be in?
The Objective Playoff Field
If the playoff just rewarded wins, this would be nice and neat; there are 4 undefeated teams. Michigan, Washington, Liberty and Florida State all ran the table. But one of those teams is not like the others and would likely make for the kind of total blowout that dashes the golden idol of TV ratings. We can probably all agree to give the committee a break on that much.
It also wasn’t hard to see controversy on the horizon when 7 teams all appeared deserving of playoff limelight. The nice thing about objective performance data is that it requires no mental gymnastics, no song and dance. It’s just a reflection of who played the best seasons.
1. Michigan
The Wolverines have been ranked #1 by this data since Week 7, when USC was dethroned by Notre Dame. We’ve come a long way since that midpoint of the season, haven’t we? Michigan has also been through the gauntlet of a suspended head coach and departure of other coaching staff, on top of the type of key injuries many teams sustain throughout the year. They’ve responded by silencing doubters and winning at every opportunity, giving them a stranglehold on the best PASS rating of the season. Truly a consensus #1.
2. Alabama
Why so high? Simple. They’ve played a stronger objective strength of schedule (oSoS) than anyone in the nation but Virginia. Of the other teams the committee selected for the playoff, Washington’s schedule was next best (Ranked back at 48th in oSoS). That edge gives Alabama’s strong performances against their schedule more weight and even with the early-season slip-up, the second best PASS rating out there. The committee has said head-to-head matchups don’t necessarily matter; the inclusion of Texas to the playoff says otherwise. It’s unfortunate that the #1 and #2 team in the country are forced to square off in the Rose Bowl instead of the National Championship.
3. Ohio State
Here’s the curveball, likely to shock folks and rankle plenty of noses. Ohio State has the #22-ranked oSoS, which is much higher than Michigan’s back at #66. The Buckeyes had convincing wins over top-performing opponents and their only loss is to the #1 team in the nation. Their destiny is closely tied with that of Michigan’s performance, and their PASS rating reflected a boost this past week as Michigan thumped Iowa. That’s right, this is the best 1-loss team in the nation. While it brings me no joy to admit it, OSU has perhaps the biggest gripe of anyone. Not just for being left out, but to be dropped below the top 6 this year altogether.
4. Florida State
Here we are. Yes. Florida State did deserve to be in. By leaving out the Seminoles, the committee essentially told the world that only your quarterback matters. I feel truly awful for all of the players who did everything a team is supposed to do to compete for a national title. They deserve to be in the Sugar Bowl and the committee did a disservice to us all by their exclusion. FSU’s defense is right up there with Michigan for best in the FBS. In fact, the gap between this team and the next only grew after the low-scoring win over Louisville. That’s a testament to team efficiency. Detractors might point out their strength of schedule, but at #61 they’re still higher than both Georgia and Michigan.
Here’s the visualization of these teams’ paths over the course of the season, along with the rest of the Top 25 and an FBS-worst Boston College to account for the whole range.
A week ago, Washington was right there with Florida State and a convincing win over Oregon could’ve boosted them up a spot. Unfortunately for the Huskies, they instead dropped with another close win over the Ducks while featuring in a PAC12 conference that simply doesn’t play much defense, leading to a weakening of performance grade. UW fans should be very thankful this holiday season to be where they are.
Even an undefeated Georgia would’ve had to beat the heck out of Alabama to get to the top 4 in performance. An insane 50-0 rout might not even have been enough. Schedule may have been an argument the Bulldogs could try to make as an undefeated team; at #64 they were 2 spots above Michigan. The tougher news for Dawgs fans is that they didn’t perform all that admirably against their schedule when compared to their peers. Taking the loss to Alabama proved what these ranks have illustrated all year long. In 2023, Georgia has never been one of the top 4 teams.
If Washington is lucky, Texas is hit-the-powerball lucky. Sitting back a full 20 points in PASS rating numbers, the Longhorns mostly did what they could with the schedule they were given. The Big XII Championship was a bust as Oklahoma State represented an even weaker team than any of those in Group of Five championship games. The loss to Oklahoma isn’t as bad as some think, (OU was the better PASS team at the time), but decent performances against a weaker Big XII this year just didn’t offer Texas enough of a boost.
One plus: A Sugar Bowl between Texas and Washington is pretty evenly matched, even if they’re both weaker teams than on the other side of the bracket.
The Objective Performance-Based Top 25
Once again, the committee moves one step further into fantasy than reality. A season-best 3 teams are where they belong, at least.
It took 7 weeks for the committee to catch up to these objective rankings, finally housing Michigan at #1. As opposed to the Group of Five, which were just hosed. For the first time in memory, the committee actually selected a team below rank 100 for their Top 25. Oklahoma State was already mediocre after backsliding their way into a conference championship, getting annihilated knocked them down to well below average.
James Madison remains the best Group of Five team. That they couldn’t play for their conference championship remains a shame. Their reward for a dominant year is a bowl game with Air Force, so we still won’t get the chance to see them knock out a P5 team. The MAC was objectively the best performing G5 conference so it’s also a shame we won’t get to see Miami of Ohio go up against a NY6 or P5 opponent. Their stellar defense likely would’ve posed more of a threat to Oregon’s offense than what Liberty can offer the Fiesta Bowl. The RedHawks instead draw the beneficiary of the JMU-ban, Appalachian State.
SMU finally got recognition by the committee in this final ranking. It’s interesting that SMU also lost their quarterback to grisly injury, yet triumphed in their conference title bout “against the odds” (But in alignment with these odds). It’s almost like a football team consists of 22 starting players and 85 scholarship roster spots. What a revolutionary thought.
Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed this, please consider sharing it with a wider audience, friend, foe, or anyone who loves college football. Next week we’ll return with our guide for objectively simulating 2023's Bowl Season, offering projections for all 42 FBS bowls.
