Simulating the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament
Part 6: Round 2 — East and South Regions
The sports hiatus necessitated by the coronavirus has left fans with a void to fill. March Madness was cancelled and is a favorite time of the year for millions. The simulation you’ll find here both seeds the tournament and simulates the games. Did you find yourself longing for filling out a bracket and challenging your friends? You’re in the right place.
If this your first time reading, you may want to begin here, where you can fill our your own bracket.
The first round ended with an incredible run of upsets. The probability of anyone getting all of the games in the Midwest right are an incredibly low. Knowing that the odds of getting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion if you’re picking randomly—and still only 1 in 120.2 billion if you know your stuff, what would the odds be for this topsy-turvy region?
First, let’s look at the obvious: There were four games in the Midwest where the lower seed won. While uncommon, that has happened before. What makes this stand out is that a 13, 14 and 15-seed all won in the same region, which has never happened before. We could look at the overall odds of each seed advancing, we’re more interested in this tournament’s odds.
Going by the straight odds from tournament history, 15-seed Eastern Washington only has a 5.7% chance of advancing past their 2-seed matchup. In this bracket’s matchup with Michigan St., they have a slightly more favorable shot to advance at 9.2%. This wasn’t even the best of odds for the 15-seeds. That honor goes to UA Little Rock, who knocked out Creighton in 15.6% of total simulations. As many have speculated all year long, 2020 really does seem to have brought more parity to the college basketball landscape.
Let’s move on with the results of the second round.
Second Round — South
2. Creighton (-1.1) vs. 10. Texas Tech
Creighton (#12 per KenPom’s Adj. Efficiency) beat their point spread (-11.7) against UA Little Rock but left bettors clenching their teeth, winning by 12. The Bluejays are not shy about letting it fly. Juniors Ty-Shon Alexander and Mitch Ballock both average more than six 3-point attempts per game and Sophomore PG Marcus Zegarowski takes 5.5. It’s easy to forgive the itchy-trigger finger when the trio are all ranked in the top-200 for 3-point percentage (6th-ranked nationally as a team). Depth could present a challenge; all three also average a lot of minutes and play in the top-100 for percentage of minutes per game.
Texas Tech (#21) revealed themselves to be criminally under-seeded and beat the biggest underdog line of +3.2 in the tournament. They are riding high after successfully avenging their 2019 Championship loss over Virginia. Can the Red Raiders impose their defense (9th-ranked) on this high-flying offense (3rd)? Coach Chris Beard has a much tougher job of making a run than in 2019 when he had KenPom’s Player of the Year, Jarrett Culver. An ability to hound the ball could be the key to this game; Tech’s pressure defense is 15th-ranked in non-steal turnover % (Creighton is 308th).
Final score: Creighton 69 , Texas Tech 71 (UPSET)
3. Villanova (-1.4) vs. 6. Penn St.
Villanova (#18) may have dethroned the beloved Anteaters after being heavily favored, but they’ll have no such luxury in this tight matchup against one of the six remaining Big Ten Eleven. How will the Wildcats react to seeing their Big East champions rivals fall? Despite the numbers saying they’re slightly over-seeded, a methodical 15th-ranked offense seeks to prove otherwise. Their weakness is depth, where three players average over 80% of the game’s minutes and two more are over 73%. A six-man team doesn’t inspire much confidence in this format, but true-Freshman big man Jeremiah-Robinson Earl will try to prove otherwise on the boards and at the charity stripe (81.4%).
Penn St. (#26) won convincingly in a 4-point spread against the easiest of the 11-seeds in ETSU, showing that the tournament can be a fresh start for a team that struggled down the stretch. Surprising for a team that prefers speed (54th-ranked for Adjusted Tempo), the Nittany Lions don’t turn the ball over (20th-ranked in turnover %). Their biggest hurdle is hoping that ‘Nova has a cold shooting night because the defense has struggled against the three-ball. This is a deep team that can throw a lot of looks at opponents. They’ll look to exploit that weakness in this matchup.
Final score: Villanova 69 , Penn St. 71 (UPSET)
5. BYU (-7.1) vs. 13. North Texas
I swear I didn’t just copy/paste that score—we really did just have a repeat in our results. I chose the order of the reveal, so that’s on me—sorry to my Big East fans. BYU (#13) couldn’t cover the spread against an organized Yale squad, where their inability to grab offensive boards (344th-ranked) and free-throw rate (343rd-ranked) perhaps revealed this team’s Achilles’ heel. The Cougars will be thankful to be playing against a lower-ranked opponent and will be looking to avoid the trappings of overconfidence after escaping their last matchup.
Can North Texas (#77) win again and become the first true Cinderella of this tournament? Their win over Ohio State was even more unlikely than in this second-round matchup where the spread is smaller. The Mean Green upset wasn’t even the biggest of the first round, illustrating the kind of parity seen across the NCAA this past season. Their ability to hang with OSU’s half-court set may have shocked some, but this team is most comfortable playing out the clock on each possession (350th-ranked in tempo). If their pace can frustrate their opponents, their ability to take high-value shots can win. Four players shoot over 56% inside, and four players shoot over 36.5% from deep.
Final score: BYU 72, North Texas 68
1. Baylor (-5.7) vs. 8. Florida
Baylor (#3) and their 29-point win in round one over Siena paled only in comparison to conference-rival Kansas’ own blowout victory. Look for the Bears to come out angry with a chip on their shoulder. While the Bears have a crushing defensive style, their front-court is thin and that could hurt them as the matchups get more competitive. Senior center Freddie Gillespie has to stay on the court; he’s 8th-ranked in offensive rebound % and 41st in shot-blocking %. Even taking that into account, the team is a dismal 350th in shot-blocking %. They need his help inside as well, where they’re 256th-ranked for 2-point %.
That young team from Florida (#32) opened the first round with an energetic 10-point win over Indiana in an almost-coin-flip matchup. Can lone Senior Kerry Blackshear’s experience steer this ship on to the Sweet 16? Big, athletic Freshman PG Andrew Nembhard could provide matchup problems for opposing guards. He also sports D1's 40th-ranked assist rate, but the rest of the team is lacking in their ability to pass (289th-ranked team assist rate). That could prove problematic in a slow-paced half-court offense against a team as strong as 1-seed Baylor.
Final score: Baylor 70, Florida 58
Second Round — East
2. San Diego St. (-6.3) vs. 10. Utah St.
SDSU (#6) eked out a tougher than expected win over Northern Kentucky, and now advance to face one of the perfect 10-seeds—the team who took away their Mountain West crown. In the next edition of this grudge match, both teams will be looking to play with much more balance on offense. In that MWC title game, The Aztecs only had 3 players in double-figures and Utah St. rode the hot-hand of Sam Merrill to victory. Junior forward Matt Mitchell looked overmatched at times as the team lost the defensive rebound battle 20–29. Malachi Flynn will have to utilize his high assist-rate (80th-ranked) this time around to advance past their rivals.
After their upset victory over Arizona, Utah St. (#41) is hoping lightning can strike twice. They can bet that their rivals will do everything they can to keep Sam Merrill in check and while they know he’ll get to the line, shouldn’t count on him to score 27 points again. The key to victory for the Aggies will be getting scoring help inside for Merrill to get open looks outside where he shoots 41%. If this team can repeat its rebound dominance from the previous matchup with SDSU, they could level the season series at two wins apiece and advance.
Final score: SDSU 70, Utah St. 59
3. Seton Hall (-2.5) vs. 6. Auburn
Seton Hall (#20) handled a 9.2 point spread against a stout Bradley team and now looks to use their strong inside game to stop a hot-shooting team. For the Pirates to win, they’ll have to try to keep Auburn off the foul stripe and use their size to avoid allowing too many offensive rebounds (289th-ranked). Senior guard Myles Powell (21.0 ppg) will need to see more assistance on offense from fellow guard Quincy McKnight (11.7 ppg) and his front-court to avoid the double-team.
Showcasing their speed, Auburn (#33) imposed their offense in a near-even matchup battle of basketball philosophies with Wichita St. Senior guard Samir Doughty will have to stay hot as he takes the bulk of the Tigers’ shots from outside where he hits 33.5% of them. If he’s able to keep shots falling, Senior forward Anfernee McLemore can get more looks inside, where he’s hitting 62.3% of his shots (78th-ranked). As previously mentioned, this team has no trouble getting to the line but they’ll need to hit their free throws to win this game (67.4% as a team, 290th-ranked).
Final score: Seton Hall 82, Auburn 83 (OT UPSET)
4. Louisville (-1.8) vs. 12. Purdue
Louisville (#9) ended up with the easiest path past the 13-seed, winning 76.6% of their simulated matchups with New Mexico St. and just managing to cover an 8.6-point spread. This opponent might only be one seed lower but should present a much greater challenge. To advance against a physically bigger team, the Cardinals are going to have to create more than the usual havoc on defense. As it stands, their defense is only 264th-ranked in creating turnovers and no player ranks in the top-500 for steal %. It may not matter if Senior Ryan McMahon gets hot from deep where he’s shooting 43.6% (43rd-ranked).
Purdue (#23) is quite happy to finally get a win against their conference-foe, 5-seed Michigan. As a team that thrives on bullying opponents in tough half-court sets, the Boilermakers will have to better use their height to their advantage. Purdue also has a hard time getting to the line; the team is 323rd-ranked for free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt .Despite being the 14th-tallest team out there, they only have the 284th-ranked 2-point shooting % (261st-ranked effective FG %). Foul trouble could also become an issue against an experienced opponent; three of Purdue’s players average more than 4 fouls a game.
Final score: Louisville 65, Purdue 63
1. Dayton (-5.1) vs. 9. Illinois
As expected from their 1-seed, Dayton (#4) cruised to an easy victory over Winthrop while beating a 15.5 spread by an additional 7 points. Coach Anthony Grant deserves a lot of credit for balancing his schemes to maximize the potential of phenom Obi Toppin. To date, this is the coach’s most offensive-minded team since his debut season with VCU in 2007. To win again, they’ll look to speed up their opponent and force them to shoot the 3—where Illinois is a terrible 30.3% as a team (310th-ranked).
Illinois (#30) got a confidence-boosting win for their young squad in OT against Markus Howard and a very strong Marquette team. Their road won’t get any easier against a Dayton team that is a much stronger star-focused squad; this time one with a top-50 defense. Dayton doesn’t have many obvious weaknesses either. It will be the Illini’s goal to crash the boards (Ranked 11th for offensive rebound %; Dayton is 225th) and to keep pressure on the ball against an incredibly efficient passing team in an effort to cause mistakes.
Final score: Dayton 74, Illinois 64
The chaos of the bracket is right on track, with 3 of these 8 matchups resulting in upsets. We still have both 1-seeds and it was a rough day to be a 3-seed, and we saw the 2nd of our 2-seeds fall. While those high-seed upsets may be rough on your brackets, you’re probably cheering if you picked heavily upon the 1-seeds as the field in front of them suddenly looks a lot more thin. We’re halfway to the Sweet 16 and of these winniers Auburn was the least likely to be here, advancing to the 25% of the simulated tourneys. 10-seed Texas Tech actually advanced this far in 35.2% of simulations—showing a team that popular media really swung and missed on in their projections.
Here’s that updated bracket. The back half of this round is coming soon.
