Simulating the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament
Part 5: Round One—Midwest Region
The sports hiatus necessitated by the coronavirus has left fans with a void to fill. March Madness was cancelled and is a favorite time of the year for millions. The #AprilMadness simulation you’ll find here both seeds the tournament and simulates the games. Did you find yourself longing for filling out a bracket and challenging your friends? You’re in the right place. If this your first time reading, you may want to begin here, where you can fill our your own bracket.
Sticking to a schedule on projects can be something that’s difficult even in normal times. Interruptions come up, motivation isn’t always running high and sometimes our head just isn’t it. In these times of self-quarantine, I even found myself watching the entirety of the NFL Draft’s first round when normally I’ve found a short recap more than enough. Our responsibilities and distractions may have taken new forms and somehow it still seems like there aren’t enough hours in the day. I found myself distracted in the previous segment and omitted a write-up of 14-seed Hofstra—that is now updated.
I’ve found writing up these matchups to be therapeutic, but time-consuming in an effort to pay due service. One of the thoughts I keep coming back to is what a shame it is that the players—especially the Seniors—didn’t get to compete and show off their skills on the national stage as usual. That’s a driving factor for me in imagining these matchups, and in continuing to recognize their accomplishments to date. Selfishly, I wish the players were paid for their service so that we could have a video game that better simulated these moments with the visuals to match. For now, this is what we’ve got, so let’s push onward.
First Round — Midwest
8. Rutgers (-1.4) vs. 9. Oklahoma
The first of three Big Ten entrants in the Midwest, Rutgers (#28 in adjusted efficiency) brings the conference’s toughest defense (6th-ranked nationally). A big and athletic squad, (The bulk of minutes come from the Sophomore class), the Scarlet Knights field one of the deepest teams in the tournament with nine players averaging over 30% of the game’s minutes played. The Sophomore front-court of power forward Ron Harper Jr. and center Myles Johnson lead the way in terrific effective field goal defense and 2-point shot defense (both 13th-ranked), as well as team shot block % (22nd-ranked).
Oklahoma (#36) might not have a top-ranking offense or defense, but what immediately stands out is that they do not foul. They give the fewest attempts at the line of any team in the country. The Sooners play quick offensive sets while also not throwing many balls away; Junior center Brady Manek has some of the surest hands in the nation with the 9th lowest turnover rate. While this style of play is hard to beat when shots are falling, Oklahoma can be streaky and have struggled in close games against tough defenses.
Final score: Rutgers 67, Oklahoma 66
7. Houston (-5.4) vs. 10. USC
Former Oklahoma Coach Kelvin Sampson now leads Houston (#14) into the tournament. With suspension-garnering ways now seemingly in the past, his Cougars tout a balanced team that prefers a slower-paced half-court offense where their length can dominate the boards (2nd-ranked in offensive rebound %). They defend well as a team, with the 5th-ranked effective FG defense. Biting other players aside, Junior guard DeJon Jarreau has the 74th-ranked assist rate in the country and Freshman point guard Caleb Mills has had the green light to shoot, taking an average of 35.5% of the team’s shots.
USC (#55) has an interesting roster laden with four Seniors and five Freshmen. The Trojans avoided having their bubble burst, both with their experience and the talents of electric newcomer Onyeka Okongwu. The Freshman posted great numbers, hitting 62.1% of his 2-point shots (86th-ranked) and scoring 16.2 points per game. He and Senior Nate Rakocevic formed a formidable front-court, allowing only 43.1% of opponents 2-point makes (7th-ranked).
Final score: Houston 64, USC 66 (UPSET)
6. Butler (-2) vs. 11. Saint Mary’s
Butler (#25) can’t be happy about this first round matchup with such a small point spread. The Bulldogs play a slow, methodical inside-out half-court game where the interior absolutely makes hay (12th-ranked 2-point defense). Senior forward Sean McDermott is one of three Bulldogs shooting over 57% (62.8% from two), and you don’t want to foul him (86.8% free throw %). Where this 25th-ranked offense falls short is in its ability to create turnovers or defend from range. Playing in a very strong Big East may give Butler an edge.
Pundits undervalued Saint Mary’s (#38), who could’ve been positioned even lower if not for this seeding’s statistical balance. The Gaels bring their own impressive offense into this matchup (16th-ranked), run by two players who rarely leave the floor in upperclassmen Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. The point guard and center both hit over 40% of their 3-point attempts, and the team is 5th-ranked for 3-point %. Don’t let their playing time fool you, this is a very deep team where six players are shooting over 50% from 2—9 players if you count the bench (Used under 10% of the team’s minutes). If that wasn’t enough of an edge, this team has the best ball protection in the nation (Fewest steals against).
Final score: Butler 75, St. Mary’s 71 (OT)
5. Wisconsin (-6.3) vs. 12. Akron
Wisconsin (#22) is on fire coming into the tournament, having won 8 straight and grabbing an unlikely share of the Big Ten conference title. Despite the surge, the Badgers grab a 5-seed after taking on early losses in a tough non-conference schedule. Each region seems to have taken on a theme, and the Midwest appears to be the place for a slow pace. Wisconsin joins Butler and Saint Mary’s as another of the 15 slowest paced teams in the nation. The methodical offense is run by Junior point guard D’Mitrik Trice who carries a decent assist rate (4.2 apg) and shoots 37.6% from deep.
Akron (#82) also enters the tourney on a hot streak, winning 8 of their final 9 games to come from behind and take the conference title away from Bowling Green. Preferring to play an uptempo transition game, they rely heavily upon Junior point guard Loren Cristian Jackson. An efficient shooter (35th-ranked offensive efficiency), Jackson may be undersized at 5'8" but really stuffs the stat sheet. Even with the height disadvantage he shoots 50% inside and 44.6% from deep (20th-ranked); good for 19.8 ppg. Think of him as a blend of Allen Iverson and Earl Boykins.
Final score: Wisconsin 72, Akron 60
4. Kentucky (-6.5) vs. 13. Stephen F. Austin
Like with Duke, we know the deal with Kentucky (#29). Or do we? This year the Wildcats aren’t fielding as many freshmen as in years past. While they may not be the most memorable of Coach Calipari’s classes, they are dangerous whenever they don’t make mistakes. Recently the Wildcats have been figuring out the kinks, winning 9 of 10 on their way into the bracket. Their 24th-ranked offense gets a boost from an unexpected place: They have the nation’s best free-throw shooting % as a team (79.7%) and they know how to get to the line (18th-ranked in FT attempts per FG attempt). If Junior center Nick Richards gets the ball inside, he can really take over a game (64.4% from 2-point).
Stephen F. Austin (#100) may play in the lightweight Southland Conference, but they know how to win and bring a 15-game win streak to the dance. These Lumberjacks are the very definition of chaos and it stems from them playing one of the fastest paces in the nation (39th-ranked in adjusted tempo). They have one of the worst turnover rates in the nation (349th-ranked) but they also will force a turnover on an astounding 27.8% of all possessions. That’s #1 in the country, and it’s not close. Knowing that, it won’t surprise you that Senior PG John Comeaux leads a squad with the 3rd-ranked steals %. On top of that, they get to the line even more than their opponent (3rd-ranked in FT/FGA). This should prove a sloppy game where tempers flare.
Final score: Kentucky 70, S.F.A. 75 (UPSET)
3. Florida St. (-10) vs. 14. Belmont
Florida St. (#15) will look to dominate this matchup, fueled by the knowledge that they beat out Duke for the ACC title and still drew a lower seed. The tallest team in the nation on average has given the Seminoles the 15th-ranked defense. Their height and athleticism isn’t just apparent in blocks (4th-ranked block %), but in steals as well (10th-ranked steals %). They love to play fast and try to quickly score buckets in transition, a style that comes with disadvantages. They do not rebound particularly well for a team with so much length. If forced into a half-court set, the team relies heavily upon Senior guard Trent Forrest to get the ball to an open man or take care of it himself.
Carrying their own 12-game win streak, Belmont (#109) dethroned Murray St. in both the the Ohio Valley Conference and tournament to dance again. This team may not have quite the upset potential as in years past but still shines—primarily their ability to really shoot the ball inside (5th-ranked 2-point %). Sophomore center Nick Muszynski is 63.5% when shooting the 2s, and Senior forward Tyler Scanlon is right behind him at 60.5%. Scanlon can back out and has no problem with range, shooting 39.9% from 3. They also prefer a fast transition game, so this could all come down to who can put together a hot shooting streak.
Final score: Florida St. 78, Belmont 80 (OT UPSET)
2. Michigan St. (-14) vs. 15. Eastern Washington
Michigan St. may have had to share the Big Ten conference title, but will be looking to show off that they’re the strongest of the trio with the 7th-ranked adjusted efficiency in the land. The Spartans may have household names like Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman, but also carry depth with them into this tournament so that one guy doesn’t have to carry the team. Coach Izzo’s squad is incredibly well-balanced with the 10th-ranked offense and 13th-ranked defense. How far they can go might rely on how well they can share the ball; MSU has the lowest assists per field goal in the entire nation.
You may not have heard much about the Eagles of Eastern Washington (#124) who stole away the Big Sky Conference title from Northern Colorado (#75). The Big Sky itself is a feel-good story; in terms of median conference strength, its competition rose an astounding 10 spots in the conference rankings (Out of 30 conferences) this season. If you thought SFA played fast, these Eagles are breaking the speed limit with the 18th-fastest tempo nationally and fastest in this tournament field. Where they differ is in playing fast AND holding onto the ball (13th-ranked in unforced turnover %). Watch out for Junior guard Jack Perry, who has the 2nd-best offensive rating of all eligible players and shoots 44.4% from deep (25th-ranked).
Final score: MSU 75, E. Washington 78 (UPSET)
1. Kansas (-23.7) vs. 16. Prairie View A&M
#1 Kansas, despite playing in one of the toughest conferences possible, is riding an unlikely 16-game win streak and shows no signs of slowing down. The Jayhawks field not one, but two of the KenPom Player of the Year candidates in Sophomore guard Devon Dotson (#2) and 7'0" Senior Udoka Azubuike (#6). With a run of insane upsets in this region, can Kansas keep the 1-seeds perfect?
PVA&M (#213) are fired up after winning their play-in game as ‘dawgs and now face the most brutal test in rankings disparity that we’ll see. Even keeping it close would make 4th-year Coach Byron Scott a happy man. Can 6'7" center Devonte Scott hope to contain Azubuike or will the size of Kansas be too much? The Panthers best hope is to be found in their depth, where giving their opponents lots of different sets and looks could cause disruption.
Final score: Kansas 87, PVA&M 49
Clearly, this bracket saved the best for last. After a season of #1s falling and flailing, a 13, 14 and 15 seed all winning in the same region doesn’t seem impossible. In many of these simulations, Michigan St., Florida St., Houston and Kentucky were in the Final Four or even crowned champion (MSU especially). Does that mean Kansas will have an easy time rumbling onward, or will they too find themselves cut down by a landscape showing more parity than ever? Wisconsin still lurks and advanced in plenty of simulations run by this engine as well. Speaking of those Big Ten teams, 6 of the 11 advanced.
At a glance, two anomalies stand out: Two 13-seeds advanced and we’re looking at a perfect 10 after all of the 7-seeds lost. Two times since the field expanded we’ve seen only one 7-seed escape and this would mark the first time 7 was the unluckiest number. Well, and 16. Another note to mention is that Eastern Washington’s win to overcome a 14-point spread was the biggest upset of the first round, and much closer to the territory of 16. UMBC over 1. Virginia in statistical disparity. Are there any other anomalies you spot? Has your bracket burst? With all 1-seeds and three of the 2-seeds still here there’s plenty of mayhem to come and no one can count themselves out yet. Here’s your bracket, and see you soon with Round 2.
