Simulating the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament
Part 4: Round One–West Region
The sports hiatus necessitated by the coronavirus has left fans with a void to fill. March Madness was cancelled and is a favorite time of the year for millions. The #AprilMadness simulation you’ll find here both seeds the tournament and simulates the games. Did you find yourself longing for filling out a bracket and challenging your friends? You’re in the right place. If this your first time reading, you may want to begin here, where you can fill our your own bracket.
We’re taking a look at the West region and who will advance from Round 1. Let’s get to it.
First Round — West
8. Colorado (-0.1) vs. 9. LSU
Almost a coin flip, but Colorado (Ranked #35) gets the edge despite coming into the tournament on a five game losing streak. Last of which stings the most, getting blown out by bottom-feeding Washington St. in their conference tournament. The Buffaloes are a veteran team ranking #3 nationally in lineup continuity, so one has to wonder if something is happening off the court. The PAC12 seems to have solved them, but a new opponent could be what they need. Anchored by steady-handed Junior point guard McKinley Wright, they also bring an athletic (If undersized) interior defense allowing only 44.2% of 2-point makes (26th-ranked nationally).
On the other side of the ball, LSU (#37) also stumbled a bit down the stretch; they lost 6 of their final 10 games. With Coach Will Wade’s dealings seemingly having no impact upon his employment, this team should be more focused this year. A young squad with the 4th-most efficient offense in the nation might be why this SEC school is willing to turn a blind eye. Anchoring all the underclassmen in this uptempo offense is the efficient-scoring Senior point guard Skylar Mays. As a team, the Tigers are strong inside scorers who crash the offensive boards (15th-ranked in Off. Reb. %) and make their free throws (21st-ranked team FT%). The inexperience also shows in owning one of the worst assist ratios in the nation (314th-ranked) and struggling to balance their game with an outside shot.
Final score: Colorado 75, LSU 76 (UPSET)
7. Providence (-0.7) vs. 10. Cincinnati
Providence (#40) comes crashing into the tournament on a 6-game winning streak in the ultra-competitive Big East. This experienced team brings 5 seniors who know how to win, most notably forward Alpha Diallo and guard Luwane Pipkins. Hometown hero Sophomore guard David Duke adds an outside presence, shooting 42% from deep. This edition of the Friars is stout on defense (27th-ranked) and is always looking to pick your pocket with the 14th-ranked steal % in the nation. Creating a lot of turnovers while not turning the ball over themselves is where this team sees its success.
Winners of a particularly physical American Conference, Cincinnati (#44) arrive with a new-look offense from also-new Coach John Brannen. Where this Bearcats team no longer sports a top-10 defense, they bring much more balance in moving the ball on offense with assists on over 57% of their made shots. The defense hasn’t evaporated entirely, with 7'1" Junior Chris Vogt patrolling the paint (8th-ranked in 2-point % allowed). He also holds one of the nation’s top effective FG percentages in scoring. Senior point guard Jarron Cumberland leads the improved offense; a clutch shooter who will drive inside looking to draw fouls. Listed at 6'5", 210 lbs. he can run through most defenders. Stopping him is the key to stopping this team.
Final score: Providence 66, Cincinnati 69 (UPSET)
6. Iowa (-3.3) vs. 11. Richmond
Iowa (#23) had a season with the highest highs, and lowest lows. They trot out the leader for KenPom Player of the Year, Junior center Luka Garza. They also lost Senior point guard and 3-point threat Jordan Bohannon early in the year. A 6-seed may seem like a unfair place for a team that expected so much more. Garza is a monster inside, taking and making the bulk of this team’s shots at a 58.9% clip inside. If you manage to get him out of the paint, he still shoots over 35% from 3-point land. A steady diet of getting the ball to Garza has led the Hawkeyes to the 5th-ranked offense in all the land.
Richmond (#46) doesn’t have that same star power, but they do hold their A10 conference title and have a core of five starting Juniors who know how to play together. That confidence shows through in the stats, where the Spiders hold one of the lowest turnover percentages around (17th-ranked). Point guard Jacob Gilyard might only be 5'9" but he’s got the 4th-ranked steal rate in the nation. This undersized team plays fast and shoots a lot of 3-pointers, which could be a recipe for success to avoid Garza.
Final score: Iowa 75, Richmond 78 (UPSET)
5. West Virginia (-7.6) vs. 12. Liberty
That’s three straight upsets! This West is looking to be wild, if cliché. In what would have been Coach Bob Huggins’ 25th tournament appearance, West Virginia (#10) shows up with one of its strongest squads in recent memory. A team that’s had to play in the shadow of 1-seeds Kansas and Baylor all year, the Mountaineers bring classic Huggins-brand basketball (3rd-ranked defense, 1st ranked Off. Reb. %) to a region loaded with offense. Star Freshman Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage, shoots 55.2% from 2-point range and draws a lot of attention to open up his teammates. They certainly are under-seeded and will look to capitalize upon it.
Liberty (#79) is an unknown, here because of an exceptionally weak Atlantic Sun conference title over the likes of Stetson (#288) and Lipscomb (#247), both teams they lost to in the regular season. Padding their stats are blowout wins over lower division schools. To their credit, they have two games and one win over a top-100 opponent. They felled Akron (#82), while fellow West bracket resident LSU destroyed them thoroughly. With such a weak schedule most of their stats aren’t trustworthy, outside of playing the absolute slowest pace in the nation (352nd-ranked). Four seniors were a recipe for success against their mostly sub-200 ranked opponents. Unless WVU is caught sleeping from overconfidence, this game is likely a matter of covering the spread.
Final score: West Virginia 62, Liberty 58
4. Oregon (-6.5) vs. 13. Vermont
Adding yet another high-flying offense to the West, Oregon (#17) and 10th-ranked Player of the Year candidate Payton Pritchard prefer a half-court, inside-out offense that was ranked 6th in efficiency. Their reward was the conference title of a much-improved PAC-12, and a 4-seed. The Ducks love the long ball, with Pritchard and fellow-Senior small forward Anthony Mathis leading the way from range; shooting 41.5% and 45.4% (12th-ranked) respectively. If the tournament progressed as normal, an injury to starter Chris Duarte could have thwarted a deep run from this team.
Vermont (#76), much like Liberty, won a weak conference title in the America East. Where they differ is difficulty of their path, where Vermont played the 110th ranked non-conference schedule. Like Oregon, they prefer slower-paced games and will feel right at home grinding it out. The Catamounts are 11th-ranked in effective field goal defense and allow an especially stingy 42.4% of shots inside (5th-ranked). Steered by Senior forward Anthony Lamb who does a bit of everything, this team also likes to shoot the 3-ball but lack the efficiency of their opponents.
Final score: Oregon 71, Vermont 62
3. Maryland (-10.2) vs. 14. Hofstra
Maryland (#11) is absolutely not satisfied with only one-third of the Big Ten conference title and will be hungry to go deep in this tournament. While individual team stats don’t stand out as much some of these other teams, the Terrapins are incredibly balanced (18th-ranked offense, 22nd-ranked defense) and don’t have many weaknesses. Led by Senior point guard Anthony Cowan and a consistent lineup (7th-ranked in minutes consistency), their kryptonite could be running into teams with more size. The majority of Maryland’s height is to be found far down the bench and they’ll rely on Sophomore center Jalen Smith being able to stay in the game.
Hofstra (#108) finds themselves champion of a Colonial Athletic Association that showed a bit more competitive fire this year. Early in the year, they took down UCLA in a true road game so The Pride should be primed for the big stage of the big dance. Seniors Desure Buie and Eli Pemberton lead a team that can be viewed one of two ways: They play one of the most consistent starting 5s in the country, or they lack depth. Regardless of which view you choose, this team is organized. They don’t foul (3rd-ranked in free-throw rate against), they don’t turn the ball over, they hit from long range (20th-ranked in 3pt %) and they hit their free throws (8th-ranked FT%).
Final score: Maryland 73, Hofstra 68
2. Duke (-13.2) vs. 15. North Dakota St.
Duke (#5) is Duke. You know the drill for these NBA-nexts, this team is composed of talented Freshmen and some Sophomores, plus a few upperclassmen who pop in here and there. Ok, that’s not the whole story, but almost, for this 9th-ranked offense. One-and-done center Vernon Carey is draft-ready (7th-ranked in Player of the Year), owns the paint (59% 2-point shooting), and draws all the fouls (3rd-ranked in fouls drawn per 40 minutes). If you double him up, other high-ranked scoring effeciency Junior guard Jordan Goldwire (Shoots 57.7% from 2) and 6'9" dual-threat Freshman Matthew Hurt who knocks down shots from anywhere (57.1% 2-point and 39.3% 3-point). Where is Duke weak? That’d be 3-point defense, where they allow the 3rd most per possession in the nation.
North Dakota State (#112) has another of the tightest units in college basketball with the 7th-ranked lineup in minutes consistency. This veteran Bison squad took home the Summit League title in a 46-point blowout and will have huge upsets on their mind. NDSU has some of the most lopsided statistical makeups of all the teams here. They don’t turn the ball over (5th-ranked) but they also don’t cause any turnovers (347th). They don’t allow you to grab offensive boards (1st-ranked) but they don’t grab any themselves (324th). A true wild card, their biggest chance comes from Senior point guard Vinnie Shahid and hoping his clutch shot and ability to get to the line will hold up against such a highly-touted lineup.
Final score: Duke 75, NDSU 70
1. Gonzaga (-18.1) vs. 16. Boston U.
The West and its ridiculous firepower (5 of the top-10 offenses!) was already silly, so it makes sense that the #1-ranked offense in the NCAA would be here too. With a point spread this big it’s likely I’ll be writing about them again so I’ll keep this short: Filip Petrusev finished 9th in Player of the Year. Seven of the top 250 players in offensive efficiency are on this team; no other squad in this region has even five. The Bulldogs score a ton from everywhere and don’t turn the ball over. Next.
Boston University! The little play-in that could. We talked about how Jonas Harper doesn’t turn the ball over (2nd-ranked) and they held on over North Carolina Central. Their reward is the all-too-real-feeling uneven weight class matchup of a Terrier vs. a Bulldog. Trying to slow down the pace where their ball security blanket holds possession and hoping for centers Sukhmail Mathon and Max Mahoney to keep grabbing offensive boards, (46th and 71st- ranked, respectively), may be their only shots at survival.
Final score: Gonzaga 76, BU 75(OT)
Bulldogs fans have to heave a sigh of relief with that imaginary 3-point buzzer beater from …let’s say Ryan Woolridge ultimately saving their season, and their reputation. Sorry BU, you were this close to UMBC fame. That’s it for Round 1 of the West. We opened with 3 upsets and then it was all chalk in some pretty lopsided matchups until that last nail-biter. Round 2 in this region is looking great—here is your updated bracket. 7-seeds are 0–3. Thank your expert bracketologists and their love of the big-money conferences for that. Later this week look for Round 1 to wrap up with overall #1-seed Kansas and the Midwest. Until then, stay safe, stay sane.
