Simulating the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament

Part 3: Round One–East Region

9 min readApr 16, 2020

The sports hiatus necessitated by the coronavirus has left fans with a void to fill. March Madness was cancelled and is a favorite time of the year for millions. The #AprilMadness simulation you’ll find here both seeds the tournament and simulates the games. Did you find yourself longing for filling out a bracket and challenging your friends? You’re in the right place. If this your first time reading, you may want to begin here, where you can fill our your own bracket.

The bracket has begun to unfold and the South is ready for Round 2. Today, let’s look at our contenders for the East quadrant of the bracket and find out who will be moving on. As previously noted, upsets will be called out any time a lower seed wins.

First Round — East

8. Marquette vs. 9. Illinois (EVEN)

The predictive engine says this matchup is a true coin-flip. If you missed it in Part 1—no travel is taking place and there are no crowd advantages—seeding didn’t have to cater to a team’s location. Albany would’ve been lucky to host this midwestern shootout between two of the most fun-to-watch players in college basketball. You’ve likely heard about Marquette’s Markus Howard, because he’s a high-volume scorer leading all players with 27.8ppg. He’s also #1 nationally in both % of Possesions Used and % of shots taken. That’s good for 3rd overall in KenPom’s Player of the Year award. Back for his Senior year with the Golden Eagles (#31 in adjusted efficiency), he leads a deep and experienced team. Seven-footer Brendan Bailey has gotten more minutes as the year’s has gone on, but starting center Theo John is still a major shot-blocking threat (39th-ranked in Shot Blocking %).

While less heralded, the Fighting Illini (#30 AdjE) have their own electric player in Ayo Dosunmu. He may not be as statistically prolific as Howard but is still highly ranked in the same areas. He lives for the clutch shot and at 6'5" can be more of a matchup headache for the opposition (Howard is 5'11"). What this team lacks in tournament experience they more than make up for with size and energy on both sides of the court. Freshman seven-footer Kofi Cockburn is 27th in Offensive Rebound % and Sophomore Alan Griffin helps space the floor, shooting 41.6% from long range.

Final score OT: Marquette 81, Illinois 82 (UPSET)

7. Arizona (-3.2) vs. 10. Utah St.

With even more social distance from the East than the last matchup, this game features a PAC12 regular against a bid-stealing upstart who took down San Diego St. in the Mountain West tournament finals. Arizona (#19) fields a strong team that finished a disappointing 5th place in-conference after losing 4of 5 to finish their season. Freshman center Zeke Nnaji leads a strong interior defense (14th in D-Efficiency), while fellow Freshman Nico Mannion has both ball security and great passing ability on offense.

The Aggies (#41) knew they were on the bubble and come into the tournament on fire, winning 12 of their past 14 games. Senior combo-guard Sam Merrill runs the show and is an incredible efficient scorer at 19.7 ppg who can beat you inside, outside and at the line (Shooting 51.5% / 41% / 89.3% respectively). This is one of the largest lineups in the nation, with a team average over 6'5"; they rarely allow offensive rebounds. Sophomore seven-footer Neemias Queta brings an inside scoring presence, and is a great-shot blocker. They have forced a slower half-court pace upon opponents to get where they are.

Final score: Arizona 67, Utah St. 70 (UPSET)

6. Auburn (-0.5) vs. 11. Wichita St.

Wichita St. comes into the first play-in matchup with some momentum. But will they have energy in the tank after their OT slugfest with Xavier? Auburn fans certainly hope not. The Tigers (#33) are prone to cold streaks of shooting (301st-ranked 3-point %) . They only lost 6 games, but all were in-conference and the team did not play a difficult schedule, with Richmond being the best out-of-conference competition they saw. Auburn gets by on two key factors: Offensive rebounding (13th-ranked) led by Senior center Austin Wiley, and the ability to get to the line (4th-ranked in free throws per field goal attempt). The experience of five seniors doesn’t hurt when it comes to close games.

With Wichita St. (#39) already reviewed in the last session, let’s take a look at how they match up here. Auburn’s strong front court runs into one of the nation’s strongest interior defenses. This is likely to be an ugly shooting day for both teams. Where Auburn is bad at long range, the Shockers struggle to score inside (317th-ranked in 2-point %) and could be forced to rely heavily upon Tyson Etienne and Jamarius Burton. Both are streaky shooters hitting about 38.8% and 38.1% of attempts behind the arc.

Final score: Auburn 70, Wichita St. 69

5. Michigan (-1) vs. 12. Purdue

What’s more interesting than the matchup of conference foes this early in the tourney is the point spread. With such narrow odds, it’s no wonder 11 and 12-seeds are favored to pull upsets, or go on a Cinderella run year after year. However, I’m willing to bet at least a few people are happy that at least one of the Big Ten teams will be falling today.

Michigan (#16) is a very balanced squad that gets going behind Senior Zavier Simpson. The Wolverines don’t turn the ball over (11th-ranked TO%) and have a great handle (6th-ranked against Steal %). They do damage inside and out, hitting 54.1% of 2-point attempts as a team. They also have four players shooting 36% or better from the three. While Coach Juwan Howard’s team lost 12 games this year, all of them were to top-30 opponents (In adjusted efficiency). Michigan’s biggest weakness is that they are ranked #320 in creating turnovers.

Purdue (#24), our other play-in winner of the day, will be seeking revenge after losing both regular-season matchups with Michigan. Can Coach Matt Painter get his guys to impose their slow pace of play? Getting an athletic team like Michigan trapped in half-court sets where shot-blocking Matt Haarms (9th-ranked in block %) can protect the rim might be Purdue’s key to victory here.

Final score: Michigan 64, Purdue 66 (UPSET)

4. Louisville (-8.6) vs. 13. New Mexico St.

Fans cheering for an unprecedented Aggie-on-Aggie shootout in the tournament unfortunately have to acknowledge that a strong Louisville (#9) team stands in the way. Are these Cardinals finally clean, or does the program still skirt the rules? All we can know for sure is that Coach Chris Mack won’t care if his team can perform better than their 3–4 finish to the year in an oddly weak edition of the ACC. Louisville thrives on their effective field goal defense (14th-ranked). Another factor is their experience; the seven players who see the most minutes are all upperclassmen. Junior Jordan Nwora and Senior Ryan McMahon can both be lights out in long-range shooting when they get going.

New Mexico St. (#91) ended their season on a 19-game win streak, sweeping away the entire Western Athletic Conference. Against stiffer competition the Aggies saw mixed results, with a win over Mississippi St. (48th-ranked), but losing both games of a home-and-home with in-state rival UNM (138th). This team plays at one of the most methodically slow paces in the nation (343rd ranked in adjusted tempo). The team uses it’s half-court setup to create chaos, generating steals and deflections wherever possible, while grabbing offensive rebounds on 34.5% of possessions (21st-ranked). Power Forward Johnny McCants can and will hit a majority of his shots, shooting 67.8% inside (15th in the nation) and 38.8% from distance.

Final score: Louisville 70, NM St. 61

3. Seton Hall (-9.2) vs. 14. Bradley

Seton Hall (#20) runs out their strongest teams in years. The Pirates defense is anchored by 7'2" center Romaro Gill (5th nationally in block %). When Senior guard Myles Powell (7th-ranked in % of shots taken) does get the ball inside to him, he’s not going to miss a lot of shots. Keeping Powell out of the lane isn’t easy but is a recipe for victory; he only shoots 30% from the 3-point. Despite the lack of long range firepower, very few teams will beat Seton Hall when their uptempo transition game is working.

After a dramatic Missouri Valley Conference tournament full of upsets, Bradley (#107) emerged from the flames victorious. These Braves may not have stolen a bid, but their deep range scoring bursts can quickly become a pain for any opponent). Senior Nate Kennell leads the way at 44.2% from deep. On the other side of the ball, going into the lane against this front court leads to a lot of blocks. Senior center Koch Bar and undersized but athletic power forward Elijah Childs both block over 5.5% of possessions.

Final score: Seton Hall 77, Bradley 65

2. San Diego St. (-14.6) vs. 15. Northern Kentucky

We’re back to potential blowout territory. Can SDSU (#6) make a significant push with their second appearance as a 2-seed? With a near-perfect season and wins over BYU and Creighton, no one on the bracket is happy to have them in their way. Yet another team that runs a grindingly slow game, SDSU is perhaps best in the nation at running clock. Aztecs’ Junior PG Malachi Flynn(#5 in KenPom Player of the Year) is certainly not the same kind of player as alumnus Kawhi Leonard. Still, this floor general is running one of the most balanced and efficient teams around. When he’s not maximizing his own shot efficiency, Flynn has weapons all over the court. Senior center Yanni Wetzell hits 61.7% of his 2-point attempts and Junior forward Jordan Schakel buries 43.4% of his 3-pointers.

NKU (#144) is in the tournament for a second straight year, but now with veteran Coach Darrin Horn looking to rejuvenate his career. Their appearance is a bit of a surprise. The Norse gained momentum at the perfect time and everything in the Horizon League broke their way. Even at their peak fitness this squad didn’t have a lot of size; now they’re carrying several injuries into the tourney. Senior guard Tyler Sharpe tries to carry the team on his shoulders, playing in 89.4% of his team’s minutes. As such, this 15-seed faces some of the longest odds in Round 1 to advance.

Final score: San Diego St. 65, NKU 61

1. Dayton (-15.5) vs. 16. Winthrop

Obi Toppin. Full stop(pin). If you haven’t watched Dayton and wonder why a team out of the Atlantic 10 has a 1-seed, Sophomore Obi Toppin (Ranked #4 nationally for Player of the Year) isn’t just a fun name to say, but more a force of nature. He leads the Flyers and the #2 most efficient offense in all the land to the school’s first-ever 1-seed. He’s not alone, with 3 other players starring in the nation’s top-100 for offensive efficiency. Seemingly the whole team can hit 3’s. Trey Landers and Ryan Mikesell are shooting 66.7% and 63.9% of their 2-pointers which is still somehow dwarfed by Toppin, topping out (Last one) at 69.8% (6th-ranked), an astounding rate for someone averaging 20 points per game.

Obi Toppin doesn’t need a chip on his shoulder in this one, but if he had one, it would be in knowing that Winthrop’s Chase Claxton holds the title of #1 overall in Offensive rating. Claxton, a Freshman, just qualified for this honor, playing in only 51.1% of his team’s minutes. The Eagles true strength is in trying to catch their opponents off-guard with an incredibly fast pace. Their average possessions are only 15.5 seconds long and despite this, they have a 35-ranked effective FG% of 53%, mostly opting for 2-point shots. They rebound well on both ends of the floor, but are stronger on the offensive boards (18th-ranked in offensive rebound %).

Final score: Dayton 89, Winthrop 64

With 3 upsets in 8 games, the East is in the books and joins the South in awaiting their second round matchups. Has your bracket held up? If you’re answering no, don’t stress it, I sense some real chaos ahead in the latter half of Round 1. Thanks for following along, and hopefully you’re enjoying killing some time with #AprilMadness towards those shining moments at the end of the tunnel. Here’s your updated bracket: