Simulating the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament
Part 2: First Round Play-in and Round One—South.
The sports hiatus necessitated by the coronavirus has left fans with a void to fill. March Madness was cancelled and is a favorite time of the year for millions. The #AprilMadness simulation you’ll find here both seeds the tournament and simulates the games. Did you find yourself longing for filling out a bracket and challenging your friends? You’re in the right place. If this your first time reading, you may want to begin here, where you can fill our your own bracket.
The field is set. To simulate the NCAA Tournament as accurately as possible, a strong predictive method was needed. Several simulation models I reviewed eventually led back to this formula; that seemed like a good place to start. I’d also like to point to David Glidden’s post on simulating the tourney, which provides a model where you can run the simulation yourself. That provided quite useful as inspiration to create my own field.
Using this model, we’ll see the average amount of upsets in the tournament. With more parity in college basketball than we’re used to in 2020, many of the simulations run were quite chaotic. It isn’t without flaws: after thousands of simulations, patterns emerge and some were less encouraging. While the teams who advance feel accurately distributed, I feel that scoring results need a tweak. Closer point spread matchups tend to show only two or three final scores commonly repeated. A lot of scores fall into the same ranges, so I may add OT where I deem appropriate to mix things up a bit.
We’ve got exciting matchups and even more exciting results to look forward to. If you want to fill out a bracket before continuing, do that now. You can get your blank bracket with this field and read more in Part One. We’ll take a look at the teams who are in and give you the final scores. Upsets will also be noted when a lower seed wins, even if the data didn’t show an upset. Player and team stats referenced are via KenPom.com.
On to the results of #AprilMadness!
First Four Play-in Round
16. Boston University (-6) vs. 16. North Carolina Central
This battle for the 16-seed and the right to play Gonzaga is the most lopsided affair of the First Four. The NCC Eagles advanced with a lone win in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference tournament and come in as the weakest team in the field (#272 in AdjE). They’re led by Senior Jibri Blount who rarely sees the bench, playing an average of 92% of minutes. He’s capable of taking over in a close matchup, hitting nearly 54% of 2-point attempts.
By contrast, the Terriers are a relatively strong 16-seed (#159), and stormed through with Patriot League tournament with a win over a heavily favored Colgate squad. While lacking a player like Blount, they’re efficient on the offensive boards for a team outside the top 100 in height, and they don’t turn the ball over much. Sophomore Jonas Harper is #2 in the nation for TO rate, giving up the ball on less than 7% of possessions.
Final score: BU 66, NCC 62
16. Robert Morris (-0.6) vs. 16. Prairie View A&M
The second matchup of 16-seeds is vying for the right to play #1 overall seed Kansas. The Robert Morris Colonials (#207) have been here before and may feel snubbed by not drawing a higher seed after winning the Northeast Conference tournament, but this spread is less than a point. Point guard Jon Williams moves the ball well, and the team shoots efficiently from all over the floor, with three guards shooting above 39% from behind the arc. Power forward AJ Bramah can be a threat inside and regularly gets to the free-throw line.
Prairie View A&M (#213) had perhaps their most successful season yet as regular season champions of the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Despite being on the lower side of this matchup’s spread, the Panthers are starting 5 seniors. They do not turn the ball over and are Top 10 in turnover ratio. They hound the ball, generating a lot of steals, and are 9th in the nation in 3-point defense. They’re top 25 for getting to the line, but foul heavily on the other side of the ball (#351 in opponents free-throw rate).
Final score: Robert Morris 66, PVA&M 68 (UPSET)
12. Purdue (-3) vs. 12. Stanford
Half of the last four in, this matchup is stronger than most come to expect from a play-in round game. Thanks to the skew of our bracketology experts, a lot of weaker at-large bids are safely in the field, forcing these two to square off early. Purdue might not wow you with their 16–15 record but don’t be fooled, this is still the 24th-ranked team in the nation for Adjusted Efficiency. While they only have one senior, Evan Boudreaux and Matt Haarms form one of the best interiors in the nation and these Boilermakers sport the 11th-ranked defense in all the land.
This edition of the Stanford Cardinal (#43) is no slouch, but might be limping into their play-in after a .500 conference schedule in the competitive PAC12 and a first-round exit in their tournament to underdog Cal. Still, this team has dangerous pieces. Freshman Spencer Jones is all over the court hitting over 43% of his 3-point attempts, and at 6'7" gets his share of blocks. Center Oscar da Silva is a highly versatile big inside and PG Daejon Davis is an engine, both distributing the ball and getting it back in steals.
Final score: Purdue 62, Stanford 60
11. Wichita St. (-0.9) vs. 11. Xavier
Our final play-in game brings us at-large bids from two perennial tournament programs who have risen from mid-major to major conferences. Wichita St. (#39) has a less experienced squad than in years past, but Coach Gregg Marshall’s brand of basketball has still molded them into the 8th-ranked defense in the nation. That’s no small feat coming out of the American, which boasts some of the other toughest defenses around (5 teams in the top 50, only Memphis was higher at #5). With their lone senior—transfer Center Jaime Echinique—making his first tournament, the Shockers are 14th in the nation in 2-point FG defense, holding opponents below making 44% of their shots.
The Musketeers (#45) sneak in to steal an at-large bid due mainly to their strength of schedule in the power-laden Big East. Junior standout Paul Scruggs’ injury late in the season may have doomed this team as their only true 3-point threat, but this is still a gritty defensive team with a lot of meat; they’re one of the top 25 tallest squads. Senior Tyrique Jones crashes the boards on both sides of the floor and brings a ton of energy to the team. Xavier also sports the nations 20th-ranked defense which signals that this game could be an ugly, low-scoring affair.
Final score OT: Wichita St. 66, Xavier 65
First Round — South
This region’s first round led by 1-seed Baylor will be revealed today, and throughout the week the other regions will be unveiled.
8. Florida (-0.7) vs. 9. Indiana
Kicking off the Big Dance, we’ve already got a prime matchup between powerhouses. The Gators (#32) have a solid offense with good numbers across the board, but not excelling in any one area. That’s certainly attributable to having one of the youngest lineups in the nation (#347 of 353). While that’s going to lead to some rookie mistakes, this energetic lineup still features top-level talent like Sophomore Noah Locke. He’s #9 in the nation in ball security, doesn’t turn it over and shoots the three-ball at nearly 43%.
The Hoosiers (#34) might have a losing conference record, but this year in the Big Ten that wasn’t considered enough to hold them out. Almost the opposite of Florida, they’ve got a solid but not stellar defense and bring a lot of height with their game. So, they’re at best pretty good and at worst, still here? At 6'9", Freshman Trayce Jackson-Davis brings a strong inside presence with one of the top 100 offensive ratings in the game. Indiana moves the ball well, with three players ranking in the top 500 for assist rate.
Final score: Florida 66, Indiana 65
7. Virginia vs. 10. Texas Tech (+3.2)
The seeding couldn’t have been more dramatic if it had been assembled by the committee: Last year’s final in this year’s first round! I know I’m excited. We’ve also got quite the seeding discrepancy between data and pundit—The Red Raiders of Texas Tech (#21) are much stronger as a 10-seed than the Cavaliers as a 7-seed (#42). Apparently holding that title really inflates your value in the eyes of the media.
Virginia under Coach Tony Bennett still sports the nations 1st-ranked defense. They still play at a mind-bendingly slow pace. No team has much success or fun playing against this. Where you’ll notice a significant difference this year is that outside of star power forward Mamadi Diakite and center Jay Huff, the offense just isn’t hitting shots at range (Adjusted Offense rank #234). Starting Senior Braxton Key is shooting a dismal 18.5% from 3-point land and sixth man Casey Morsell is somehow even worse at 17.6%.
While Texas Tech may no longer have the nation’s 2nd-ranked defense (Now it’s #9), their offense has remained about where it was last year. This is still a loaded team, and the 2020 edition of the Big 12 was a tougher conference than the ACC. They’ve added Freshman Jahmi’us Ramsey and let him shoot at will on offense with his 42.6% make rate from three. The team is not without holes. Outside of Senior Chris Clarke, there isn’t as much ball movement as last year’s edition and this team can struggle against other top defenses.
Final Score: Virginia 50, Texas Tech 55 (UPSET)
6. Penn St. (-3.9) vs. 11. East Tennessee St.
This is where the upsets become more meaningful and you know in your gut that one of these 6-seeds is going to fall. Will that hold true in a simulated tournament? Yep, these Big Ten teams are pretty much all here and they’re mostly, really, really good. Penn St. (#26) ended the year losing 5 of 6 and carrying a couple of injured players, but here they are. They still field a top 50 offense and defense and they don’t turn the ball over much. Junior John Harrar plays in about half the Nittany Lions minutes but is crazy efficient when he’s in, grabbing all the offensive boards and shooting 62.5% from two.
ETSU (#56) is so many less letters than this school’s name and typing it long-form feels like it somehow raises your power bill (I know mine has gone up, being inside all the time now). Did you know this team was the Buccaneers? Cool name; even cooler logo, with nice usage of the state outline. If you’ve heard anything about this team, it’s probably that Isaiah Tisdale is an absolute stud, and it’s true. He can shoot inside and out and he gets to the line. The combo of Tray Boyd and Daivien Williamson both space the floor with strong 3-point range of their own. Lucas N’Guessan is a 7-footer who shoots 64.9% from two and unsurprisingly blocks a bunch of shots. Patrick Good is, well, also good.
Final Score: Penn St. 72, ETSU 66
5. BYU (-6.2) vs. 12. Yale
Well, that was anti-climactic. You know one of these 12-seeds has to fall! Cougars Coach Mark Pope (Not a joke!) has BYU firing on all statistical cylinders, ranked 13th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency in a top-heavy West Coast Conference where half the games were one-sided beat-em-ups. Their offense is unheralded—they have three of the nation’s top 15 shooters in terms of 3-point percentage. That’s easily #1 for team 3-point % in the nation. What’s scary is that they’re also ranked 15th for 2-point %. Only Dayton and people’s fantasy NBA teams have a more effective FG% than these Cougars. A 5-seed is silly for this team.
Yale (#58), the Ivy League champion, is the contender charged with somehow stopping this offensive juggernaut. And they’re not bad! They’re ranked 5th nationally defending against offensive rebounds, so they protect their boards. Junior Center Paul Atkinson is one of the top 100 most efficient players in the nation and shoots over 64% from two. Senior PG Eric Monroe shoots 44.3% from deep (27th nationally) and has a high assist rate, too. The Bulldogs are a solid but not great team who at least keep this point spread respectable.
Final Score: BYU 74, Penn St. 70
4. Ohio St. (-7.9) vs. 13. North Texas
No such luck for an Ivy cinderella. So it’s on to another Big Ten team! The Buckeyes (#8) were very, very good this year. They’re balanced on both ends of the floor, sporting top 20 offense and defense. This is not a team anyone—especially a 1-seed—wants to run into. What could hold them back? Well, injuries for one. Losing the leadership of DJ Carton and efficiency of Kyle Young suck the life out of what should have been a true contender for the title. Luckily for them, it won’t be as impactful in the simulation. The Buckeyes still have the Wesson brothers, and Kaleb at 6'9" and shooting 42.5% from the three causes problems for even the best defenders out there.
The Mean Green of North Texas are back for another tournament and bring solid experience with them. Conference USA was no cakewalk this year. The Mean Green (But bird logo? Someone please explain.) couldn’t grab a significant out-of-conference win, but they only lost to Oklahoma by 2 and did damage in CUSA, finishing one game ahead of a slightly stronger Louisiana Tech team. Junior PG Javion Hamlet runs the show with a top 50 assist rate and 3-point %, but don’t sleep on Senior reserve DJ Draper who is #2 in the nation from behind the arc, shooting a blistering 49.4%. This is a deep team that rotates personnel effictively.
Final Score: Ohio St. 63, North Texas 67 (UPSET!!)
3. Villanova (-9.3) vs. 14. UC Irvine
That point spread grows as we make our way towards that 1 seed; so do the risks, as we saw in that last matchup. Villanova (#18) is a team who can overcome the odds as Coach Jay Wright has shown in the past. A 3-seed doesn’t make their life any easier. The Big East runners-up had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde vibe during the season; dropping a couple of early top matchups and then beating a No. 1 ranked Kansas. Every team they lost to is now here in the Big Dance (And well-seeded). For a team to sport the #15 offense while rostering zero Seniors is quite the feat—as is Saddiq Bey’s 45.1% 3-point percentage while shooting at a high volume.
UC Irvine, the Anteaters! If you’re picking your bracket by the mascots, you already know what to do here. That isn’t their only merit—this team has the 12th-ranked Effective FG% defense and are #2 nationally in 2-point defense. Junior Brad Greene is a beast on the boards on both ends of the floor. They’re strong inside and don’t get blocked very often. If there’s a glaring mark on their resume, it’s turnovers. The Anteaters throw it away a lot for a team playing at below-average tempo.
Final Score: Villanova 71, UC Irvine 65
2. Creighton (-11.7) vs. 15. Little Rock
The odds grow long, but not impossible. Can a 15, or even 16 win this year? Adding to the firepower of the bracket’s South region, Creighton (#12) brings their 3rd-ranked offense to the table. They grabbed the Big East title and are on fire, winning seven of eight of their final conference games. Their backbone is a three-headed front-court monster consisting of Sophomore Marcus Zegarowski alongside Juniors Ty-Shon Alexander and Mitch Ballock. They all can shoot from deep, space the floor and move the ball to open up the frontcourt, who then benefit with a ton of open looks.
Little Rock (#129) might not look to have much of a chance here. If they do, their odds rest upon their ability to get to the foul line (#2 nationally). Sophomore Kamani Johnson is #1 in the nation at getting to the line and Junior Ruot Monyyong isn’t far behind. You probably want to hack one of those two guys, because also-prone free-throw shooter Markquis Nowell holds the ball more and drains 87.3% of his free throws. Outside of that, they don’t move the ball especially well and turn it over quite a lot.
Final Score: Creighton 82, Little Rock 70
1. Baylor (-15.6) vs. 16. Siena
Twelve points isn’t exactly a blowout. Let’s see if our 1-seed Baylor (#3) can show us how it’s done when gifted a huge spread. Coach Scott Drew’s Bears may have lost three of their final five games, but can be forgiven after a 23-game winning streak. They don’t play the same slow, suffocating defense as Virginia, but their 4th-ranked D goes to show it’s nearly as effective, and it keeps the offense moving a whole lot more efficiently, especially in terms of grabbing boards on both ends of the floor. Baylor is strong and balanced in nearly every category and if there’s a knock against them, it’s that they may not be as deep as some of the other top contenders.
Siena (#145), we hardly knew ya. Of all the thousands of simulations run, these Saints lived up to their name as they were absolutely martyred, losing more of their simulations than any other team in the field. It’s not all bad for Siena, as Senior Center Elijah Burns is as efficient a player as you’ll find anywhere (23rd-ranked Offensive Rating and 1st overall True Shooting %). If you get him the ball, you’ll get points. As is the case with a lot of small-conference winners, Siena struggles with turning the ball over. They don’t tend to commit many fouls but in a cruel stroke this year, opponents shot lights out from the free-throw line against them. One last simulation, do they have a chance?
Final Score: Baylor 82, Siena 53
There’s the blowout we’ve been looking for. There were a lot of close games today and not a lot of upsets. Some of the teams who are already out won big in earlier simulation batches run. While building this platform, Ohio St. snatched more than a couple championships and ETSU even got one. Unfortunately for them, this is the only one that mattered.
I hope you enjoyed this dive into #AprilMadness. How did you fare in the South? Did your play-ins play you? Can you imagine the buzzer-beaters? Follow along and check back for more of the matchups this week, the updated bracket is below.
