Simulating the 2022–23 Bowl Season
From objective point spreads to tempo-based predictions
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. The holiday season for collegiate sports fans is made even sweeter by an ever-growing field of bowl games and the final stretch of non-conference basketball. But today we’re here for the kickoff of bowl season.
Predicting the outcomes of the bowls is now a fantasy sports tradition as big as any other, as common as stepping outside for a holiday football game with family. Whether it’s simple picks or picking against the spread, just for fun or trying to win a bet, everyone’s chasing perfection. For me, it means finding a formula that can predict outcomes at a higher rate than commonly found models—many of which contain subjective factors like opinion polls or preseason grades. With a full season of numbers to plow through there’s no need to bring any junk data to the table.
Principles like the Monte Carlo method have proven a strong baseline for creating basic odds. When applied to an individual stat like points per game, that’s how your basic point spread is born. These predictions take that a step further by adjusting for tempo, or simply how quickly teams can put points up on the board. To do this, we look at factoring yards-gained and yards-allowed against points-scored and points-scored-against, while accounting for turnovers and penalties. Other areas investigated have included creating an objective, or adjusted strength of schedule (aSOS), as well as grading performance against the schedule (PAaSOS) to provide more context to the simulation outcomes.
Let’s get to the picks. Last year one version of this formula was wildly successful, correctly predicting 37 of 39 bowls. Will this year provide similar success, or will the natural forces of balance swing back? Here we’ll look at 2 sets of predictions: A Monte Carlo style simulation, and purely picking teams by their predicted tempo.
Standard Simulation
Each matchup went through 500 simulated final scores to determine likelihood of a victory and average scoring margin. Projected yards are added as a bonus. Bold teams are your winner.
Friday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl
Miami Ohio — 15 / 271 yds
UAB —25 / 425 yds
Cure Bowl
Troy — 25 / 380
UTSA — 27 / 407
Saturday, Dec. 17
Fenway Bowl
Cincinnati — 21 / 335
Louisville — 20 / 358
Celebration Bowl
Sorry, no pick for this one. FCS data was only tracked in matchups with the FBS.
Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon St. — 30 / 404
Florida — 23 / 384
LA Bowl
Washington St. — 23 / 361
Fresno St. — 26 / 398
LendingTree Bowl
Rice— 20 / 343
Southern Mississippi — 28 / 300
New Mexico Bowl
SMU — 40 / 495
BYU — 37 / 477
Frisco Bowl
Boise St. — 34 / 456
North Texas — 26 / 367
Monday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Marshall — 24 / 416
Uconn — 9 / 223
Tuesday, Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Eastern Michigan — 24 / 328
San Jose St. — 30 / 350
Boca Raton Bowl
Liberty — 28 / 365
Toledo — 31 / 377
Wednesday, Dec. 21
New Orleans Bowl
South Alabama — 27 / 388
Western Kentucky — 27 / 383
PUSH! In a tie, adjusted tempo is the tiebreaker. WKU gets the nod.
Thursday, Dec. 22
Armed Forces Bowl
Baylor — 21 / 314
Air Force — 25 / 365
Friday, Dec. 23
Independence Bowl
Houston — 32 / 436
Louisiana — 32 / 405
Gasparilla Bowl
Wake Forest — 34 / 395
Missouri — 28 / 392
Saturday, Dec. 24
Hawai’i Bowl
Middle Tenn St. — 21 / 339
San Diego St. — 23 / 358
Monday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Bowling Green — 24 / 326
New Mexico St. — 27 / 347
Tuesday, Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl
Buffalo— 34 / 483
Georgia Southern — 34 / 486
First Responder Bowl
Memphis — 38 / 438
Utah St. — 25 / 364
Birmingham Bowl
Coastal Carolina — 29 / 436
East Carolina — 33 / 469
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Oklahoma St. — 26 / 337
Wisconsin — 30 / 411
Wednesday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl
Duke — 27 / 420
UCF — 31 / 479
Liberty Bowl
Arkansas — 37 / 514
Kansas — 34 / 476
Holiday Bowl
Oregon — 42 / 555
North Carolina— 34 / 469
Texas Bowl
Texas Tech — 30 / 449
Ole Miss — 35 / 512
Thursday, Dec. 29
Pinstripe Bowl
Minnesota — 24 / 372
Syracuse — 17 / 291
Cheez-It Bowl
Florida St. — 38 / 528
Oklahoma — 26 / 399
Alamo Bowl
Washington — 30 / 454
Texas — 35 / 394
Friday, Dec. 30
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
NC State — 21 / 313
Maryland — 22 / 353
Sun Bowl
UCLA— 34 / 433
Pitt — 31 / 404
Gator Bowl
South Carolina — 25 / 314
Notre Dame — 31 / 388
Arizona Bowl
Ohio — 35 / 405
Wyoming — 18/ 304
Orange Bowl
Tennessee — 40 / 471
Clemson — 30 / 399
Saturday, Dec. 31
Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff semifinal)
Michigan — 38 / 487
TCU — 26 / 363
Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff semifinal)
Georgia — 33 / 423
Ohio St. — 31 / 414
Music City Bowl
Iowa — 12 / 215
Kentucky — 11 / 238
Sugar Bowl
Alabama — 37 / 431
Kansas St. — 24 / 339
Monday, Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl
Mississippi St. — 20 / 296
Illinois — 23 / 353
Citrus Bowl
LSU — 32 / 426
Purdue — 24 / 386
Cotton Bowl Classic
USC — 33 / 447
Tulane — 34 / 443
This is my must-see matchup, the only game where the team with the higher mean score lost more than 50% of simulations (USC won 50.8% of matchups). Even in a loss, I think Tulane is going to surprise a lot of people.
Rose Bowl Game
Utah — 28 / 386
Penn St. — 29 / 375
Tempo-based picks
The team with the better adjusted tempo tends to win a very high percentage of games and deviates slightly from projections above—Including one of the title contenders! Here are the picks based purely on who has the higher projected tempo for their game.
Bahamas Bowl
UAB
Cure Bowl
Troy
Fenway Bowl
Cincinnati
Celebration Bowl
No pick for the FCS, but Jackson St. seems to be a strong tempo team.
Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon St.
LA Bowl
Fresno St.
LendingTree Bowl
Southern Mississippi
New Mexico Bowl
BYU
Frisco Bowl
Boise St.
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Marshall
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
San Jose St.
Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky
Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force
Independence Bowl
Houston
Gasparilla Bowl
Wake Forest
Hawai’i Bowl
San Diego St.
Quick Lane Bowl
New Mexico St.
Camellia Bowl
Georgia Southern
First Responder Bowl
Memphis
Birmingham Bowl
East Carolina
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Wisconsin
Military Bowl
Duke
Liberty Bowl
Arkansas
Holiday Bowl
Oregon
Texas Bowl
Ole Miss
Pinstripe Bowl
Minnesota
Cheez-It Bowl
Florida St.
Alamo Bowl
Texas
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Maryland
Sun Bowl
UCLA
Gator Bowl
Notre Dame
Arizona Bowl
Ohio
Orange Bowl
Tennessee
Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff semifinal)
Michigan
Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff semifinal)
Ohio St.
Music City Bowl
Iowa
Sugar Bowl
Alabama
ReliaQuest Bowl
Illinois
Citrus Bowl
LSU
Cotton Bowl Classic
Tulane
Rose Bowl Game
Penn St.
That’s all for these picks based on objective game data. I’ll be running simulations for the National Championship once the stage is set. If you’d like to see how you stack up or want to show off by finishing ahead, please join the following groups on ESPN! And to share the holiday sporting spirit far and wide, I’d really appreciate any sharing or linking of this content to send it along to another fan. Good luck on your picks and enjoy the games.
Ranked point picks
Against the spread
Plain old pick ‘em
Author’s note:
This information is the result of one of my favorite hobbies and while it may be relevant, it is not intended as advice for gambling. If you are gambling this season, remember to never gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know faces issues with problem gambling, please seek resources that can help, such as https://800gambler.org/
