Simulating the 2022–’23 CFB National Championship
A follow-up to our bowl season predictions, and estimated outcome for Monday’s big game
One thing no one needs a simulator to tell them: The college football bowl season will be wild. 2022–’23 has already been a memorable year for college football, from the FCS Title game’s massive upset (91% of ESPN user’s picked Jackson State) to a Heisman winner losing to a team from the Group of Five (These simulations predicted Tulane would win by 1, and this writer would definitely draft Tyjae Spears ahead of Caleb Williams). So, how did all of our other simulations and predictions fare?
This year’s tempo-based predictions were not as prophetic as last year’s unlikely run of good luck but still managed to predict a majority of outcomes, including several winners many pundits completely overlooked. Out of the 41 FBS bowls played prior to Monday’s National Championship these tempo-based predictions went 30–11. That’s good for a 73.17% success rate, which is just north of the desired margin of success (70%).
In terms of picks, the average mean score from the simulations run were slightly less accurate. Regression from last year’s overwhelming success was to be expected; this performance still gives a boost to the confidence in the formulas for both team evaluation and simulation results. Even though the model regressed, it still dominated the field against the common field on ESPN.com.
National Champion Prediction
Before the playoff began, Georgia / TCU would’ve looked like a pretty lopsided matchup. TCU can keep the chip on their shoulder because despite the outcomes, the odds are still leaning heavily in Georgia’s favor. It’s notable that the spread currently listed on ESPN sits at -13.5 (Georgia). Our simulations currently have the median outcome as…
Georgia— 36
TCU— 24
If the above gap still stands on Monday, these picks will take TCU against the spread. With TCU’s tenacity and penchant for unseen momentum this year I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hand this formula one more L on straight picks (And tempo) to close out the bowl season. Georgia fans also have good reason to be confident after their own epic comeback victory. For the rest of us neutral parties, let’s hope the final game can deliver at least some of the fireworks of the two playoff matchups.
Enjoy the game!
Author’s note:
This information is the result of one of my favorite hobbies and while it may be relevant, it is not intended as advice for gambling. If you are gambling this season, remember to never gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know faces issues with problem gambling, please seek resources that can help, such as https://800gambler.org/
