Simulating the 2024 NCAA Football Playoff —Semifinals
The Simulator is 8 for 8 Across Rounds 1 & 2.
Opinion polls are just that: opinions, subjective value carrying little worth. Each week, this system identifies the Top FBS college football programs in terms of objective performance against strength of schedule (PASS), scoring tempo (sTem), and a true win percentage (tWin%). To learn more, check out the season kickoff, and last year’s primer. As the 2024 season progresses I’ll compare these objective ranks against the biased opinions of the College Football Playoff committee. And Follow me over at BlueSky!
We’re down to our very first edition of a College Football Final Four. Or so I’d like to think, considering the four-team playoff was really just semi finals and a championship game. It’s been a great playoff for predictive metrics around these parts. As with Round 1, the higher-ranked PASS team went 3-of-4; Penn State once again popped as the lone performance underdog to advance.
The PASS Top 25
As with last week, non-playoff bowl games are excluded from these latest changes in PASS rankings. Sitting players, coaching staff changes, and rosters do not reflect the same qualities as they did throughout the season. Their inclusion could taint the overall data pool for the playoff teams and their performance.
For all-important bragging rights and invisible prestige points: After the National Championship has been awarded, I’ll run PASS one more time including all bowl game data, then review the final rankings of the conferences.
The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Oregon had one of the steepest drop-offs for performance in this now ‘24–’25 season. It wasn’t quite a runaway Alabama losing to Vanderbilt, but it wasn’t much better. Texas’ first loss to Georgia may be a better comparison for caliber of opponent. Speaking of the Dawgs, they took a dip reminiscent of SMU the week before, putting up only 10 points against a stout Notre Dame defense.
This week I’ll skip the tWin% and sTem Top 25 lists. The only movement is among playoff winners and losers. We’ll revist the ranks at season’s end to see how the picture might differ with the addition of exhibition bowl games.
The Playoff Games — Round 2 Results
The simulator’s perfect playoff predictions were on the ropes during the Arizona State and Texas game. Interestingly enough, Arizona State won more of the contests that went to overtime in the 500 simulations — 2.8%, or 14 of those went to OT. The Sun Devils won 8 of them.
Seeing how both teams leapt ahead along their progression curves reveals just how much the current format for overtime can affect outcomes. Both ASU and Texas completed overtime near the peak of their expected simulation scores. Texas was right on the nose, while Arizona State slightly overperformed to get there. By the time the game was over, both teams overshot their average simulated result (Although well within the bounds of the results overall).
Why does that matter? All you have to do is ask someone who bets on over/under lines. Imagine taking the under on a 52-point line while watching a defensive battle play out, and then having that mark obliterated because of a few mistakes at the end of the game followed by multiple overtimes. In my opinion, while this overtime format is in play, it just isn’t worth the risk or the odds to take the under in college football. As Georgia and Georgia Tech illustrated a month ago, a somewhat expected 54-point game can suddenly balloon to an 86-point deluge.
With those two schools well ahead on the projection curve, let’s look at the other results:
The two Big Ten teams are the other teams who overperformed their simulated average in this round. Ohio State produced the least likely outcome of the round, just as the Buckeyes did last round. At about 2% projected likelihood on the curve it was still more likely than their performance last week, which was the lowest of the playoff to date at 1.65%. Of other teams, only SMU has entered that territory with a result that was about 1.8% likely. And Penn State’s defense has certainly played a part in their playoff opponents’ underperformances.
Oregon’s 21 points scored in line with their simulated average of 22. Boise State and Georgia underperformed in roughly the same territory. Notre Dame slightly underperformed, although the Fighting Irish carried the widest range of scoring outcomes and their 13-point margin was larger than the 11-point margin predicted.
The Playoff Games —Semifinals
Three games to go. Here are the two semifinal matchups.
Each game is simulated using a head-to-head matchup of PASS / sTem data on both sides of the ball. Five hundred simulations of each game reveal an average score, points ceiling & floor, projected yards, and track scoring likelihood. Vegas odds for comparison are as of 1:00AM EST on Jan. 7th.
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame VS Penn State
PASS: #1 Notre Dame 67.360 // #7 Penn State 35.010
sTem: #1 Notre Dame 0.389 // #7 Penn State 0.259
Avg. Score/Total: Notre Dame 28 Penn State 23 // Total 51
Ceiling/Floor: Notre Dame 59 | 0 // Penn State 47 | 0
Projected Yds: Notre Dame 335 // Penn State 300
Vegas says: Notre Dame (-1.5)
Simulation odds: Notre Dame 63.2% // Penn State 36.8%
Penn State was on the positive side of near-odds in its previous two playoff games. Now the Nittany Lions are the underdog. Notre Dame was a 77% favorite over Georgia and their odds are back down to around where they were versus Indiana in the first round. PSU is 49% likely to score between 20 and 30 points, but score more than 30 in just 14.8% of simulations. N.D. once again have a wider margin of scoring potential and the advantage in a higher range game, scoring over 30 points 39.4% of the time.
If Penn State can limit the Fighting Irish to the same kind of performance on the curve seen against Georgia, the Nittany Lions certainly have the range for an upset. They’d likely need to continue creating turnovers: Notre Dame’s defense continues to confound opponents, and Penn State’s offense is rated lower than Georgia’s.
Peach Bowl: Ohio State VS Texas
PASS: #2 Ohio State 62.800 // #4 Texas 47.674
sTem: #2 Ohio State 0.386 // #6 Texas 0.262
Avg. Score/Total: Ohio State 25 Texas 21 // Total 46
Ceiling/Floor: Ohio State 49 | 0 // Texas 42 | 2
Projected Yds: Ohio State 341 // Texas 326
Vegas says: Ohio State (-6.0)
Simulation odds: Ohio State 62.2% // Texas 37.8%
Here’s a piece of good news for Texas: In 500 simulations and despite Ohio State’s top-notch defense, the Longhorns weren’t shut out a single time. That’s not the only reason for enthusiasm; the simulator thinks this game could have a closer score than Vegas predicts. It’s interesting to note that the projection curves here seem a little more conservative than in other matchups, which could hint at a lower-scoring defensive game. But if that Buckeye offense explodes against this Texas team, OSU could likely be the #1 PASS team in the nation entering the National Championship.
I can’t wait to see what happens. I find the prolonged playoff exciting in that the data pool grows larger for these winning teams, so we have the opportunity to learn more about who these teams really are against top competition. As the higher-ranked PASS team is 6 for 8, that 75% feels near its overall predictive range these past years. Will a team favored by the simulator finally fall? With every correct selection, I keep expecting wrong picks to balance out the odds. Maybe that will happen? I don’t think too many people would expect a Penn State / Texas final.
Good luck to your teams, on any wagers you might make, and on having a wonderful time watching the games. We’re almost at the finish line. I’ll be back next week to review our Championship contenders.
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